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The combined effect on survival of four main behavioural risk factors for non-communicable diseases


Martin-Diener, Eva; Meyer, Julia; Braun, Julia; Tarnutzer, Silvan; Faeh, David; Rohrmann, Sabine; Martin, Brian W (2014). The combined effect on survival of four main behavioural risk factors for non-communicable diseases. Preventive Medicine, 65:148-152.

Abstract

OBJECTIVE: To quantify and illustrate the combined effects of WHO's four behavioural risk factors for non-communicable diseases (NCDs) on mortality.
METHODS: Participants (n=16,721) were part of two Swiss population studies conducted between 1977 and 1993. Smoking status, alcohol consumption, physical activity and diet were assessed at baseline. With record linkage in 2008, up to 31years of follow-up with 3,533 deaths could be recorded. Mortality was assessed with Cox proportional hazard models for each risk factor and their combinations. Ten-year survival probabilities for 65- and 75-year-olds were estimated with Weibull regression models.
RESULTS: Hazard ratios for the combination of all four risk factors compared to none were 2.41 (1.99-2.93) in men and 2.46 (1.88-3.22) in women. For 65-year-olds, the probability of surviving the next 10years was 86% for men with no risk factors and 67% for men with four. In women, the respective numbers were 90% and 77%. In 75-year-olds, probabilities were 67% and 35% in men, and 74% and 47% in women.
CONCLUSIONS: The combined impact of four behavioural NCD risk factors on survival probability was comparable in size to a 10-year age difference and bigger than the gender effect.

Abstract

OBJECTIVE: To quantify and illustrate the combined effects of WHO's four behavioural risk factors for non-communicable diseases (NCDs) on mortality.
METHODS: Participants (n=16,721) were part of two Swiss population studies conducted between 1977 and 1993. Smoking status, alcohol consumption, physical activity and diet were assessed at baseline. With record linkage in 2008, up to 31years of follow-up with 3,533 deaths could be recorded. Mortality was assessed with Cox proportional hazard models for each risk factor and their combinations. Ten-year survival probabilities for 65- and 75-year-olds were estimated with Weibull regression models.
RESULTS: Hazard ratios for the combination of all four risk factors compared to none were 2.41 (1.99-2.93) in men and 2.46 (1.88-3.22) in women. For 65-year-olds, the probability of surviving the next 10years was 86% for men with no risk factors and 67% for men with four. In women, the respective numbers were 90% and 77%. In 75-year-olds, probabilities were 67% and 35% in men, and 74% and 47% in women.
CONCLUSIONS: The combined impact of four behavioural NCD risk factors on survival probability was comparable in size to a 10-year age difference and bigger than the gender effect.

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Additional indexing

Item Type:Journal Article, refereed, original work
Communities & Collections:04 Faculty of Medicine > Epidemiology, Biostatistics and Prevention Institute (EBPI)
Dewey Decimal Classification:610 Medicine & health
Language:English
Date:2014
Deposited On:19 Dec 2014 23:21
Last Modified:05 Apr 2016 18:39
Publisher:Elsevier
ISSN:0091-7435
Publisher DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ypmed.2014.05.023
PubMed ID:24989976

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