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Prediction of coronary heart disease in Europe. The 2nd report of the WHO-ERICA Project. ERICA Research Group


Lamm, G; Morgenstern, W; Epstein, Fred H; Menotti, A; Nüssel, E; de Backer, G; Shatchkute, A; Weber, A (1991). Prediction of coronary heart disease in Europe. The 2nd report of the WHO-ERICA Project. ERICA Research Group. European Heart Journal, 12(3):291-297.

Abstract

Out of 84,609 Europeans in the ERICA sample (EHJ 9, Suppl I) 18,931 had adequate 6-year follow-up data so that coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality could be assessed in relation to five risk factors (age, cholesterol, systolic blood pressure, body mass index and cigarette smoking) measured at baseline. In view of known differences between North-West and South-East Europe, analysis was performed on a regional basis, but also for Europe as a whole. By applying the multiple logistic function (MLF) analysis, coefficients for the prediction of observed CHD deaths in the four regions were computed. Application of these coefficients permitted a remarkably good prediction of future events, in the sense that over 50% of all deaths occurred in the highest quintile (20%) of the initial multiple risk distribution. By the use of regional ERICA risk-coefficients a realistic ranking of the four geographic regions of Europe in terms of CHD mortality was also achieved.

Abstract

Out of 84,609 Europeans in the ERICA sample (EHJ 9, Suppl I) 18,931 had adequate 6-year follow-up data so that coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality could be assessed in relation to five risk factors (age, cholesterol, systolic blood pressure, body mass index and cigarette smoking) measured at baseline. In view of known differences between North-West and South-East Europe, analysis was performed on a regional basis, but also for Europe as a whole. By applying the multiple logistic function (MLF) analysis, coefficients for the prediction of observed CHD deaths in the four regions were computed. Application of these coefficients permitted a remarkably good prediction of future events, in the sense that over 50% of all deaths occurred in the highest quintile (20%) of the initial multiple risk distribution. By the use of regional ERICA risk-coefficients a realistic ranking of the four geographic regions of Europe in terms of CHD mortality was also achieved.

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29 citations in Web of Science®
47 citations in Scopus®
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Additional indexing

Contributors:ERICA Research Group, Grabauskas, V, et al. Editorial Committee, Morgenstern, W, data analysis
Item Type:Journal Article, refereed, further contribution
Communities & Collections:04 Faculty of Medicine > Epidemiology, Biostatistics and Prevention Institute (EBPI)
Dewey Decimal Classification:610 Medicine & health
Language:English
Date:March 1991
Deposited On:22 Jun 2016 13:02
Last Modified:26 Jun 2016 07:32
Publisher:Oxford University Press
ISSN:0195-668X
PubMed ID:2040310

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