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Time forecast of a break-off event from a hanging glacier


Faillettaz, Jérome; Funk, Martin; Vagliasindi, Marco (2016). Time forecast of a break-off event from a hanging glacier. The Cryosphere, 10:1191-1200.

Abstract

A cold hanging glacier located on the south face of the Grandes Jorasses (Mont Blanc, Italy) broke off on the 23 and 29 September 2014 with a total estimated ice vol- ume of 105 000 m 3 . Thanks to accurate surface displacement measurements taken up to the final break-off, this event was successfully predicted 10 days in advance, enabling local au- thorities to take the necessary safety measures. The break- off event also confirmed that surface displacements expe- rienced a power law acceleration along with superimposed log-periodic oscillations prior to the final rupture. This pa- per describes the methods used to achieve a satisfactory time forecast in real time and demonstrates, using a retrospective analysis, their potential for the development of early-warning systems in real time.

Abstract

A cold hanging glacier located on the south face of the Grandes Jorasses (Mont Blanc, Italy) broke off on the 23 and 29 September 2014 with a total estimated ice vol- ume of 105 000 m 3 . Thanks to accurate surface displacement measurements taken up to the final break-off, this event was successfully predicted 10 days in advance, enabling local au- thorities to take the necessary safety measures. The break- off event also confirmed that surface displacements expe- rienced a power law acceleration along with superimposed log-periodic oscillations prior to the final rupture. This pa- per describes the methods used to achieve a satisfactory time forecast in real time and demonstrates, using a retrospective analysis, their potential for the development of early-warning systems in real time.

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Additional indexing

Item Type:Journal Article, refereed, original work
Communities & Collections:07 Faculty of Science > Institute of Geography
Dewey Decimal Classification:910 Geography & travel
Language:English
Date:2016
Deposited On:18 Oct 2016 12:53
Last Modified:23 Oct 2016 05:13
Publisher:Copernicus Publications
ISSN:1994-0416
Free access at:Publisher DOI. An embargo period may apply.
Publisher DOI:https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1191-2016

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