UZH-Logo

A multi-level strategy for anticipating future glacier lake formation and associated hazard potentials


Frey, H; Haeberli, W; Linsbauer, A; Huggel, C; Paul, F (2010). A multi-level strategy for anticipating future glacier lake formation and associated hazard potentials. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 10(2):339-352.

Abstract

In the course of glacier retreat, new glacier lakes can develop. As such lakes can be a source of natural hazards, strategies for predicting future glacier lake formation are important for an early planning of safety measures. In this article, a multi-level strategy for the identification of overdeepened parts of the glacier beds and, hence, sites with potential future lake formation, is presented. At the first two of the four levels of this strategy, glacier bed overdeepen- ings are estimated qualitatively and over large regions based on a digital elevation model (DEM) and digital glacier out- lines. On level 3, more detailed and laborious models are ap- plied for modeling the glacier bed topography over smaller regions; and on level 4, special situations must be investi- gated in-situ with detailed measurements such as geophys- ical soundings. The approaches of the strategy are validated using historical data from Trift Glacier, where a lake formed over the past decade. Scenarios of future glacier lakes are shown for the two test regions Aletsch and Bernina in the Swiss Alps. In the Bernina region, potential future lake outbursts are modeled, using a GIS-based hydrological flow routing model. As shown by a corresponding test, the ASTER GDEM and the SRTM DEM are both suitable to be used within the proposed strategy. Application of this strategy in other mountain regions of the world is therefore possible as well.

In the course of glacier retreat, new glacier lakes can develop. As such lakes can be a source of natural hazards, strategies for predicting future glacier lake formation are important for an early planning of safety measures. In this article, a multi-level strategy for the identification of overdeepened parts of the glacier beds and, hence, sites with potential future lake formation, is presented. At the first two of the four levels of this strategy, glacier bed overdeepen- ings are estimated qualitatively and over large regions based on a digital elevation model (DEM) and digital glacier out- lines. On level 3, more detailed and laborious models are ap- plied for modeling the glacier bed topography over smaller regions; and on level 4, special situations must be investi- gated in-situ with detailed measurements such as geophys- ical soundings. The approaches of the strategy are validated using historical data from Trift Glacier, where a lake formed over the past decade. Scenarios of future glacier lakes are shown for the two test regions Aletsch and Bernina in the Swiss Alps. In the Bernina region, potential future lake outbursts are modeled, using a GIS-based hydrological flow routing model. As shown by a corresponding test, the ASTER GDEM and the SRTM DEM are both suitable to be used within the proposed strategy. Application of this strategy in other mountain regions of the world is therefore possible as well.

Citations

40 citations in Web of Science®
51 citations in Scopus®
Google Scholar™

Altmetrics

Downloads

52 downloads since deposited on 28 Mar 2010
3 downloads since 12 months
Detailed statistics

Additional indexing

Item Type:Journal Article, refereed, original work
Communities & Collections:07 Faculty of Science > Institute of Geography
Dewey Decimal Classification:910 Geography & travel
Language:English
Date:2010
Deposited On:28 Mar 2010 14:35
Last Modified:05 Apr 2016 14:04
Publisher:Copernicus
ISSN:1561-8633
Publisher DOI:10.5194/nhess-10-339-2010
Official URL:http://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/10/339/2010/
Permanent URL: http://doi.org/10.5167/uzh-33174

Download

[img]
Preview
Filetype: PDF
Size: 15MB
View at publisher
Licence: Creative Commons: Attribution 3.0 Unported (CC BY 3.0)

TrendTerms

TrendTerms displays relevant terms of the abstract of this publication and related documents on a map. The terms and their relations were extracted from ZORA using word statistics. Their timelines are taken from ZORA as well. The bubble size of a term is proportional to the number of documents where the term occurs. Red, orange, yellow and green colors are used for terms that occur in the current document; red indicates high interlinkedness of a term with other terms, orange, yellow and green decreasing interlinkedness. Blue is used for terms that have a relation with the terms in this document, but occur in other documents.
You can navigate and zoom the map. Mouse-hovering a term displays its timeline, clicking it yields the associated documents.

Author Collaborations