Permanent URL to this publication: http://dx.doi.org/10.5167/uzh-34259
Zemp, M; Haeberli, W; Hoelzle, M; Paul, F (2006). Alpine glaciers to disappear within decades? Geophysical Research Letters, 33:L13504.
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Past, present and potential future glacier cover in the entire European Alps has been assessed from an integrated approach, combining in-situ measurements, remote sensing techniques and numerical modeling for equilibrium line altitudes. Alpine glaciers lost 35% of their total area from 1850 until the 1970s, and almost 50% by 2000. Total glacier volume around 1850 is estimated at some 200 km3 and is now close to one-third of this value. From the model experiment, we show that a 3°C warming of summer air temperature would reduce the currently existing Alpine glacier cover by some 80%, or up to 10% of the glacier extent of 1850. In the event of a 5°C temperature increase, the Alps would become almost completely ice-free. Annual precipitation changes of ±20% would modify such estimated percentages of remaining ice by a factor of less than two.
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|Item Type:||Journal Article, refereed, original work|
|Communities & Collections:||07 Faculty of Science > Institute of Geography|
|DDC:||910 Geography & travel|
|Deposited On:||09 Jul 2010 15:41|
|Last Modified:||28 Nov 2013 00:30|
|Publisher:||American Geophysical Union|
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