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Heterogeneity in vaccination coverage explains the size and occurrence of measles epidemics in German surveillance data


Herzog, S; Paul, M; Held, L (2011). Heterogeneity in vaccination coverage explains the size and occurrence of measles epidemics in German surveillance data. Epidemiology and Infection, 139(4):505-515.

Abstract

The objective of this study was to characterize empirically the association between vaccination coverage and the size and occurrence of measles epidemics in Germany. In order to achieve this we analysed data routinely collected by the Robert Koch Institute, which comprise the weekly number of reported measles cases at all ages as well as estimates of vaccination coverage at the average age of entry into the school system. Coverage levels within each federal state of Germany are incorporated into a multivariate time-series model for infectious disease counts, which captures occasional outbreaks by means of an autoregressive component. The observed incidence pattern of measles for all ages is best described by using the log proportion of unvaccinated school starters in the autoregressive component of the model.

The objective of this study was to characterize empirically the association between vaccination coverage and the size and occurrence of measles epidemics in Germany. In order to achieve this we analysed data routinely collected by the Robert Koch Institute, which comprise the weekly number of reported measles cases at all ages as well as estimates of vaccination coverage at the average age of entry into the school system. Coverage levels within each federal state of Germany are incorporated into a multivariate time-series model for infectious disease counts, which captures occasional outbreaks by means of an autoregressive component. The observed incidence pattern of measles for all ages is best described by using the log proportion of unvaccinated school starters in the autoregressive component of the model.

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7 citations in Web of Science®
6 citations in Scopus®
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Additional indexing

Item Type:Journal Article, refereed, original work
Communities & Collections:04 Faculty of Medicine > Epidemiology, Biostatistics and Prevention Institute (EBPI)
Dewey Decimal Classification:610 Medicine & health
Language:English
Date:2011
Deposited On:13 Dec 2010 15:25
Last Modified:05 Apr 2016 14:17
Publisher:Cambridge University Press
ISSN:0950-2688
Additional Information:Copyright: Cambridge University Press
Publisher DOI:https://doi.org/10.1017/S0950268810001664
PubMed ID:20619079
Permanent URL: https://doi.org/10.5167/uzh-36467

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