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Ground surface temperature scenarios in complex high-mountain topography based on regional climate model results


Salzmann, N; Noetzli, J; Hauck, C; Gruber, S; Hoelzle, M; Haeberli, W (2007). Ground surface temperature scenarios in complex high-mountain topography based on regional climate model results. Journal of Geophysical Research, 112:F02S12- .

Abstract

Climate change can have severe impacts on the high-mountain cryosphere, such as instabilities in rock walls induced by thawing permafrost. Relating climate change scenarios produced from global climate models (GCMs) and regional climate models (RCMs) to complex high-mountain environments is a challenging task. The qualitative and quantitative impact of changes in climatic conditions on local to microscale ground surface temperature (GST) and the ground thermal regime is not readily apparent. This study assesses a possible range of changes in the GST (DGST) in complex mountain topography. To account for uncertainties associated with RCM output, a set of 12 different scenario climate time series (including 10 RCM-based and 2 incremental scenarios) was applied to the topography and energy balance (TEBAL) model to simulate average DGST for 36 different topographic situations. Variability of the simulated DGST is related
primarily to the emission scenarios, the RCM, and the approach used to apply RCM results to the impact model. In terms of topography, significant influence on GST
simulation was shown by aspect because it modifies the received amount of solar radiation at the surface. North faces showed higher sensitivity to the applied climate scenarios, while uncertainties are higher for south faces. On the basis of the results of this study, use of RCM-based scenarios is recommended for mountain permafrost impact studies, as opposed to incremental scenarios.

Climate change can have severe impacts on the high-mountain cryosphere, such as instabilities in rock walls induced by thawing permafrost. Relating climate change scenarios produced from global climate models (GCMs) and regional climate models (RCMs) to complex high-mountain environments is a challenging task. The qualitative and quantitative impact of changes in climatic conditions on local to microscale ground surface temperature (GST) and the ground thermal regime is not readily apparent. This study assesses a possible range of changes in the GST (DGST) in complex mountain topography. To account for uncertainties associated with RCM output, a set of 12 different scenario climate time series (including 10 RCM-based and 2 incremental scenarios) was applied to the topography and energy balance (TEBAL) model to simulate average DGST for 36 different topographic situations. Variability of the simulated DGST is related
primarily to the emission scenarios, the RCM, and the approach used to apply RCM results to the impact model. In terms of topography, significant influence on GST
simulation was shown by aspect because it modifies the received amount of solar radiation at the surface. North faces showed higher sensitivity to the applied climate scenarios, while uncertainties are higher for south faces. On the basis of the results of this study, use of RCM-based scenarios is recommended for mountain permafrost impact studies, as opposed to incremental scenarios.

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20 citations in Web of Science®
20 citations in Scopus®
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Additional indexing

Item Type:Journal Article, refereed, original work
Communities & Collections:07 Faculty of Science > Institute of Geography
Dewey Decimal Classification:910 Geography & travel
Language:English
Date:21 June 2007
Deposited On:25 Mar 2009 14:04
Last Modified:05 Apr 2016 12:28
Publisher:American Geophysical Union
ISSN:0148-0227
Publisher DOI:10.1029/2006JF000527
Permanent URL: http://doi.org/10.5167/uzh-3933

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