Abstract

A mechanistic individual-based model for the infection dynamics of the parasite Echinococcus granulosus in a two host transmission system is proposed. The model describes the individual densities of the parasites in the two host populations. The architecture consists of two sub-processes for the acquisition and severity of infection in the host populations and a superimposed infection contact scheme between the hosts. The parasite dynamics within the host population are modeled using a compound mixed Poisson process for the sheep and a shot-noise process for the dogs. All model parameters are estimated based on available data. The fitted model is then used for simulations of the transmission dynamics between the two hosts to investigate environmental factors and evaluate intervention programs.