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Emerging from the War: Gold Standard Mentality, Current Accounts and the International Business Cycle 1885-1939


Hoffmann, Mathias; Woitek, Ulrich (2011). Emerging from the War: Gold Standard Mentality, Current Accounts and the International Business Cycle 1885-1939. Working paper series / Department of Economics No. 57, University of Zurich.

Abstract

We study international business cycles and capital flows in the UK, the United States and the Emerging Periphery in the period 1885-1939. Based on the same set of parameters, our model explains current account dynamics under both the Classical Gold Standard and during the Interwar period. We interpret this as evidence for Gold Standard mentality: the expectation formation mechanism with respect to major macroeconomic variables driving the current account – output, exchange rates and interest rates – has remained fundamentally stable between the two periods. Nonetheless, the macroeconomic environment changed: Volatility increased generally, but less so for international capital flows than for GDP. This pattern is consistent with shocks in the Interwar period becoming more persistent and more global.

We study international business cycles and capital flows in the UK, the United States and the Emerging Periphery in the period 1885-1939. Based on the same set of parameters, our model explains current account dynamics under both the Classical Gold Standard and during the Interwar period. We interpret this as evidence for Gold Standard mentality: the expectation formation mechanism with respect to major macroeconomic variables driving the current account – output, exchange rates and interest rates – has remained fundamentally stable between the two periods. Nonetheless, the macroeconomic environment changed: Volatility increased generally, but less so for international capital flows than for GDP. This pattern is consistent with shocks in the Interwar period becoming more persistent and more global.

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Additional indexing

Item Type:Working Paper
Communities & Collections:03 Faculty of Economics > Department of Economics
Working Paper Series > Department of Economics
Dewey Decimal Classification:330 Economics
JEL Classification:F32, F36, F40, F41, N1
Uncontrolled Keywords:Current Accounts, Capital Flows, Business Cycles, Great Depression, Gold Standard, EmergingMarkets, Present-Value models
Language:English
Date:December 2011
Deposited On:21 Dec 2011 11:35
Last Modified:05 Apr 2016 15:17
Series Name:Working paper series / Department of Economics
Number of Pages:39
ISSN:1664-7041 (P) 1664-705X (E)
Official URL:http://www.econ.uzh.ch/static/wp/econwp057.pdf
Related URLs:http://www.econ.uzh.ch/static/workingpapers.php
Permanent URL: http://doi.org/10.5167/uzh-53616

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