Permanent URL to this publication: http://dx.doi.org/10.5167/uzh-61527
Agranov, Marina; Goeree, Jacob K; Romero, Julian; Yariv, Leeat (2012). What makes voters turn out: the effects of polls and beliefs. Working paper series / Department of Economics 67, University of Zurich.
We use laboratory experiments to test for one of the foundations of the rational voter paradigm - that voters respond to probabilities of being pivotal.
We exploit a setup that entails stark theoretical effects of information concerning the preference distribution (as revealed through polls) on costly participation decisions. The data reveal several insights. First, voting propensity increases systematically with subjects' predictions of their preferred alternative's advantage. Consequently, pre-election polls do not exhibit the detrimental welfare effects that extant theoretical work predicts. They lead to more participation by the expected majority and generate more landslide elections. Finally, we investigate subjects' behavior in polls and identify when Bandwagon and Underdog Effects arise.
|Item Type:||Working Paper|
|Communities & Collections:||03 Faculty of Economics > Department of Economics|
Working Paper Series > Department of Economics
|JEL Classification:||C92, D02, D72|
|Uncontrolled Keywords:||Collective choice, polls, strategic voting|
|Deposited On:||27 Mar 2012 12:36|
|Last Modified:||19 Mar 2013 13:15|
|Series Name:||Working paper series / Department of Economics|
|Number of Pages:||31|
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