UZH-Logo

Maintenance Infos

Validation of Seattle Heart Failure Model for mortality risk prediction in patients treated with cardiac resynchronization therapy


Regoli, François; Scopigni, Francesca; Leyva, Francisco; Landolina, Maurizio; Ghio, Stefano; Tritto, Massimo; Calò, Leonardo; Klersy, Catherine; Auricchio, Angelo (2013). Validation of Seattle Heart Failure Model for mortality risk prediction in patients treated with cardiac resynchronization therapy. European Journal of Heart Failure, 15(2):211-220.

Abstract

AIMS: Survival prediction by the Seattle Heart Failure Model (SHFM) of patients treated with cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT) remains ill defined. The performance of the SHFM in this clinical setting was therefore evaluated.
METHODS AND RESULTS: Data from 1309 consecutive CRT patients (five centres) were collected retrospectively; 1139 of these patients were considered for analysis. Three-hundred and seven deaths occurred over 40.1 months (interquartile range 25.2-60.0 months; mean event rate 9.7%/year; survival of 89, 81, and 64% at 1, 2, and 5 years). Kaplan-Meier event-free survival analysis stratified according to tertile of SHFM score was significant (log rank test P < 0.001). High-risk tertile (T1) survival was 82, 67, and 46% at 1, 2, and 5 years, respectively. Observed compared with SHFM-predicted survival was 0.11 vs. 0.08, 0.19 vs. 0.16, and 0.36 vs. 0.36, at 1, 2, and 5 years. Model discrimination by c-statistic was 0.64; the logistic models' area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC-ROC) of risk tertiles was 0.66, 0.68, and 0.67, at 1, 2, and 5 years. Compared with the other two groups, T1 was globally more compromised. Within the T1 group, independent predictors of death were male gender, ischaemic heart failure aetiology, lower body weight, and CRT pacemaker.
CONCLUSIONS: SHFM performance was found to be modest, tending to overestimate survival. However, SHFM identified a high-risk, globally more compromised patient subgroup, hence supporting a comprehensive approach, which should include nutritional, metabolic, and immunological aspects, as well as defibrillator back-up.

Abstract

AIMS: Survival prediction by the Seattle Heart Failure Model (SHFM) of patients treated with cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT) remains ill defined. The performance of the SHFM in this clinical setting was therefore evaluated.
METHODS AND RESULTS: Data from 1309 consecutive CRT patients (five centres) were collected retrospectively; 1139 of these patients were considered for analysis. Three-hundred and seven deaths occurred over 40.1 months (interquartile range 25.2-60.0 months; mean event rate 9.7%/year; survival of 89, 81, and 64% at 1, 2, and 5 years). Kaplan-Meier event-free survival analysis stratified according to tertile of SHFM score was significant (log rank test P < 0.001). High-risk tertile (T1) survival was 82, 67, and 46% at 1, 2, and 5 years, respectively. Observed compared with SHFM-predicted survival was 0.11 vs. 0.08, 0.19 vs. 0.16, and 0.36 vs. 0.36, at 1, 2, and 5 years. Model discrimination by c-statistic was 0.64; the logistic models' area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC-ROC) of risk tertiles was 0.66, 0.68, and 0.67, at 1, 2, and 5 years. Compared with the other two groups, T1 was globally more compromised. Within the T1 group, independent predictors of death were male gender, ischaemic heart failure aetiology, lower body weight, and CRT pacemaker.
CONCLUSIONS: SHFM performance was found to be modest, tending to overestimate survival. However, SHFM identified a high-risk, globally more compromised patient subgroup, hence supporting a comprehensive approach, which should include nutritional, metabolic, and immunological aspects, as well as defibrillator back-up.

Citations

9 citations in Web of Science®
9 citations in Scopus®
Google Scholar™

Altmetrics

Additional indexing

Item Type:Journal Article, refereed, original work
Communities & Collections:04 Faculty of Medicine > Cardiocentro Ticino
Dewey Decimal Classification:610 Medicine & health
Language:English
Date:2013
Deposited On:03 Feb 2014 16:16
Last Modified:05 Apr 2016 17:27
Publisher:Oxford University Press
ISSN:1388-9842
Free access at:Publisher DOI. An embargo period may apply.
Publisher DOI:https://doi.org/10.1093/eurjhf/hfs162
PubMed ID:23112003

Download

Full text not available from this repository.
View at publisher

TrendTerms

TrendTerms displays relevant terms of the abstract of this publication and related documents on a map. The terms and their relations were extracted from ZORA using word statistics. Their timelines are taken from ZORA as well. The bubble size of a term is proportional to the number of documents where the term occurs. Red, orange, yellow and green colors are used for terms that occur in the current document; red indicates high interlinkedness of a term with other terms, orange, yellow and green decreasing interlinkedness. Blue is used for terms that have a relation with the terms in this document, but occur in other documents.
You can navigate and zoom the map. Mouse-hovering a term displays its timeline, clicking it yields the associated documents.

Author Collaborations