Header

UZH-Logo

Maintenance Infos

Flexible marginal structural models for estimating the cumulative effect of a time-dependent treatment on the hazard: reassessing the cardiovascular risks of didanosine treatment in the Swiss HIV cohort study


Xiao, Yongling; Abrahamowicz, Michal; Moodie, Erica E M; Weber, Rainer; Young, James (2014). Flexible marginal structural models for estimating the cumulative effect of a time-dependent treatment on the hazard: reassessing the cardiovascular risks of didanosine treatment in the Swiss HIV cohort study. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 109(506):455-464.

Abstract

The association between antiretroviral treatment and cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk in HIV-positive persons has been the subject of much debate since the Data collection on Adverse events of Anti-HIV Drugs (D:A:D) study reported that recent use of two antiretroviral drugs, abacavir (ABC) and didanosine (DDI), was associated with increased risk. We focus on the potential impact of DDI use, as this drug has not been as studied intensively as ABC. We propose a flexible marginal structural Cox model with weighted cumulative exposure modeling (Cox WCE MSM) to address two key challenges encountered when using observational longitudinal data to assess the adverse effects of medication: (1) the need to model the cumulative effect of a time-dependent treatment and (2) the need to control for time-dependent confounders that also act as mediators of the effect of past treatment. Simulations confirm that the Cox WCE MSM yields accurate estimates of the causal treatment effect given complex exposure effects and time-dependent confounding. We then use the new flexible Cox WCE MSM to assess the association between DDI use and CVD risk in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study. In contrast to the nonsignificant results obtained with conventional parametric Cox MSMs, our new Cox WCE MSM identifies a significant short-term risk increase due to DDI use in the previous year. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.

Abstract

The association between antiretroviral treatment and cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk in HIV-positive persons has been the subject of much debate since the Data collection on Adverse events of Anti-HIV Drugs (D:A:D) study reported that recent use of two antiretroviral drugs, abacavir (ABC) and didanosine (DDI), was associated with increased risk. We focus on the potential impact of DDI use, as this drug has not been as studied intensively as ABC. We propose a flexible marginal structural Cox model with weighted cumulative exposure modeling (Cox WCE MSM) to address two key challenges encountered when using observational longitudinal data to assess the adverse effects of medication: (1) the need to model the cumulative effect of a time-dependent treatment and (2) the need to control for time-dependent confounders that also act as mediators of the effect of past treatment. Simulations confirm that the Cox WCE MSM yields accurate estimates of the causal treatment effect given complex exposure effects and time-dependent confounding. We then use the new flexible Cox WCE MSM to assess the association between DDI use and CVD risk in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study. In contrast to the nonsignificant results obtained with conventional parametric Cox MSMs, our new Cox WCE MSM identifies a significant short-term risk increase due to DDI use in the previous year. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.

Statistics

Citations

11 citations in Web of Science®
10 citations in Scopus®
Google Scholar™

Altmetrics

Additional indexing

Item Type:Journal Article, refereed, original work
Communities & Collections:04 Faculty of Medicine > University Hospital Zurich > Clinic for Infectious Diseases
Dewey Decimal Classification:610 Medicine & health
Language:English
Date:2014
Deposited On:19 Dec 2014 11:17
Last Modified:08 Dec 2017 08:00
Publisher:American Statistical Association
ISSN:0162-1459
Free access at:Publisher DOI. An embargo period may apply.
Publisher DOI:https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.2013.872650

Download

Full text not available from this repository.
View at publisher