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Human insula activation reflects risk prediction errors as well as risk


Preuschoff, K; Quartz, S R; Bossaerts, P (2008). Human insula activation reflects risk prediction errors as well as risk. Journal of Neuroscience, 28(11):2745-2752.

Abstract

Understanding how organisms deal with probabilistic stimulus-reward associations has been ad-vanced by a convergence between reinforcement learning models and primate physiology, which demonstrated that the brain encodes a reward prediction error signal. However, organisms must also predict the level of risk associated with reward forecasts, monitor the errors in those risk predictions, and update these in light of new information. Risk prediction serves a dual purpose: (1) to guide choice in risk-sensitive organisms and (2) to modulate learning of uncertain rewards. To date, it is not known whether or how the brain accomplishes risk prediction. Using functional imaging during a simple gambling task in which we constantly changed risk, we show that an early-onset activation in the human insula correlates significantly with risk prediction error and that its time course is consistent with a role in rapid updating. Additionally, we show that activa-tion previously associated with general uncertainty emerges with a delay consistent with a role in risk prediction. The activations correlating with risk prediction and risk prediction errors are the analogy for risk of activations correlating with reward prediction and reward prediction errors for reward expectation. As such, our findings indicate that our understanding of the neural basis of reward anticipation under uncertainty needs to be expanded to include risk prediction.

Abstract

Understanding how organisms deal with probabilistic stimulus-reward associations has been ad-vanced by a convergence between reinforcement learning models and primate physiology, which demonstrated that the brain encodes a reward prediction error signal. However, organisms must also predict the level of risk associated with reward forecasts, monitor the errors in those risk predictions, and update these in light of new information. Risk prediction serves a dual purpose: (1) to guide choice in risk-sensitive organisms and (2) to modulate learning of uncertain rewards. To date, it is not known whether or how the brain accomplishes risk prediction. Using functional imaging during a simple gambling task in which we constantly changed risk, we show that an early-onset activation in the human insula correlates significantly with risk prediction error and that its time course is consistent with a role in rapid updating. Additionally, we show that activa-tion previously associated with general uncertainty emerges with a delay consistent with a role in risk prediction. The activations correlating with risk prediction and risk prediction errors are the analogy for risk of activations correlating with reward prediction and reward prediction errors for reward expectation. As such, our findings indicate that our understanding of the neural basis of reward anticipation under uncertainty needs to be expanded to include risk prediction.

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Additional indexing

Item Type:Journal Article, refereed, original work
Communities & Collections:03 Faculty of Economics > Department of Economics
Dewey Decimal Classification:330 Economics
Language:English
Date:12 March 2008
Deposited On:15 Jan 2009 16:31
Last Modified:05 Apr 2016 12:50
Publisher:Society for Neuroscience
ISSN:0270-6474
Additional Information:Holder of copyright: The Society for Neuroscience
Publisher DOI:https://doi.org/10.1523/JNEUROSCI.4286-07.2008
PubMed ID:18337404

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