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The information content of option demand


Puhan, Tatjana-Xenia; Kehrle, Kerstin (2014). The information content of option demand. Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper 12-43, University of Zurich.

Abstract

This paper combines the concept of market sidedness with excess option demand (changes in open interest) to solve the empirical challenge of separating directional from uninformed trading motives in widely available, unsigned options data. Our measure of options market sidedness persistently predicts the sign and strength of stock returns. Trading strategies conditional on the measure are highly profitable. For instance, when the measure indicates positive (negative) information, out-of-the-money calls (puts) generate returns of 27% (32%) over roughly four weeks. Risk-adjusted returns of a long-short equity strategy yield more than 2%. An increase in directionally informed demand predicts a decrease in option liquidity and increases in pricing inefficiency.

Abstract

This paper combines the concept of market sidedness with excess option demand (changes in open interest) to solve the empirical challenge of separating directional from uninformed trading motives in widely available, unsigned options data. Our measure of options market sidedness persistently predicts the sign and strength of stock returns. Trading strategies conditional on the measure are highly profitable. For instance, when the measure indicates positive (negative) information, out-of-the-money calls (puts) generate returns of 27% (32%) over roughly four weeks. Risk-adjusted returns of a long-short equity strategy yield more than 2%. An increase in directionally informed demand predicts a decrease in option liquidity and increases in pricing inefficiency.

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Additional indexing

Item Type:Working Paper
Communities & Collections:03 Faculty of Economics > Department of Banking and Finance
Dewey Decimal Classification:330 Economics
Language:English
Date:4 May 2014
Deposited On:20 Feb 2015 09:34
Last Modified:08 Dec 2017 11:17
Series Name:Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper
Number of Pages:59
Free access at:Official URL. An embargo period may apply.
Official URL:http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2005763
Other Identification Number:merlin-id:9537

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