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Modeling the effects of ICT on environmental sustainability: revisiting a system dynamics model developed for the european commission


Ahmadi Achachlouei, Mohammad; Hilty, Lorenz (2015). Modeling the effects of ICT on environmental sustainability: revisiting a system dynamics model developed for the european commission. In: Hilty, Lorenz; Aebischer, Bernard. ICT Innovations for Sustainability. Cham: Springer, 449-474.

Abstract

This chapter revisits a System Dynamics model developed in 2002 with the aim of exploring the future impacts of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) on environmental sustainability in the EU, which then consisted of 15 countries. The time horizon of the study was 20 years (2000-2020). We analyze the results in light of empirical data that is now available for 2000-2012. None of the three scenarios that were developed by experts to specify the external factors needed to run the model were realistic from today’s point of view. If the model is re-run with more realistic input data for the first half of the simulation period, however, the main results regarding the impact of ICT remain qualitatively the same; they seem to be relatively robust implications of the causal system structure, as it is represented in the model. Overall, the impacts of ICT for mitigating greenhouse gas emissions and other environmental burdens for 2020 tend to be slightly stronger if the simulation is based on the empirical data now available.

Abstract

This chapter revisits a System Dynamics model developed in 2002 with the aim of exploring the future impacts of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) on environmental sustainability in the EU, which then consisted of 15 countries. The time horizon of the study was 20 years (2000-2020). We analyze the results in light of empirical data that is now available for 2000-2012. None of the three scenarios that were developed by experts to specify the external factors needed to run the model were realistic from today’s point of view. If the model is re-run with more realistic input data for the first half of the simulation period, however, the main results regarding the impact of ICT remain qualitatively the same; they seem to be relatively robust implications of the causal system structure, as it is represented in the model. Overall, the impacts of ICT for mitigating greenhouse gas emissions and other environmental burdens for 2020 tend to be slightly stronger if the simulation is based on the empirical data now available.

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Additional indexing

Item Type:Book Section, refereed, original work
Communities & Collections:03 Faculty of Economics > Department of Informatics
Dewey Decimal Classification:000 Computer science, knowledge & systems
Language:English
Date:2015
Deposited On:27 Mar 2015 15:52
Last Modified:05 Apr 2016 19:11
Publisher:Springer
Series Name:Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing
Number:310
ISSN:2194-5357
ISBN:978-3-319-09227-0 (P) 978-3-319-09228-7 (E)
Additional Information:The final publication is available at Springer via http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-09228-7_27
Publisher DOI:https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-09228-7_27
Other Identification Number:merlin-id:10288

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