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Learning and the diffusion of regime contention in the Arab Spring


Bamert, Justus; Gilardi, Fabrizio; Wasserfallen, Fabio (2015). Learning and the diffusion of regime contention in the Arab Spring. Research and Politics, 2(3):1-9.

Abstract

The Arab Spring has become a prominent example of the spread of cross-national regime contention. It is widely accepted that successful regime contention (in Tunisia and Egypt) triggered protests in other countries. Both scholars and other observers have suggested that protesters learned from successful regime contention. Thus far, available evidence has been either anecdotal or qualitative. This article provides a quantitative analysis of the diffusion of regime contention in 20 countries in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region between December 2010 and April 2011. Results show that protests that led to a regime change were much more likely to be imitated elsewhere, but especially in the first couple of weeks and without taking the specificity of the context into account. Our analysis thus suggests that regime contention diffused through bounded learning during the Arab Spring.

Abstract

The Arab Spring has become a prominent example of the spread of cross-national regime contention. It is widely accepted that successful regime contention (in Tunisia and Egypt) triggered protests in other countries. Both scholars and other observers have suggested that protesters learned from successful regime contention. Thus far, available evidence has been either anecdotal or qualitative. This article provides a quantitative analysis of the diffusion of regime contention in 20 countries in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region between December 2010 and April 2011. Results show that protests that led to a regime change were much more likely to be imitated elsewhere, but especially in the first couple of weeks and without taking the specificity of the context into account. Our analysis thus suggests that regime contention diffused through bounded learning during the Arab Spring.

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Additional indexing

Item Type:Journal Article, refereed, original work
Communities & Collections:06 Faculty of Arts > Institute of Political Science
Dewey Decimal Classification:320 Political science
Uncontrolled Keywords:Arab spring, democratization, diffusion
Language:English
Date:2015
Deposited On:19 Nov 2015 13:12
Last Modified:08 Dec 2017 14:51
Publisher:Sage Publications Ltd.
ISSN:2053-1680
Free access at:Publisher DOI. An embargo period may apply.
Publisher DOI:https://doi.org/10.1177/2053168015593306
Official URL:http://rap.sagepub.com/content/2/3

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