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Sensitivity analysis using anchored ANOVA expansion and high-order moments computation


Tang, Kunkun; Congedo, Pietro Marco; Abgrall, Rémi (2015). Sensitivity analysis using anchored ANOVA expansion and high-order moments computation. International Journal for Numerical Methods in Engineering, 102(9):1554-1584.

Abstract

An anchored analysis of variance (ANOVA) method is proposed in this paper to decompose the statistical moments. Compared to the standard ANOVA with mutually orthogonal component functions, the anchored ANOVA, with an arbitrary choice of the anchor point, loses the orthogonality if employing the same measure. However, an advantage of the anchored ANOVA consists in the considerably reduced number of deterministic solver's computations, which renders the uncertainty quantification of real engineering problems much easier. Different from existing methods, the covariance decomposition of the output variance is used in this work to take account of the interactions between non-orthogonal components, yielding an exact variance expansion and thus, with a suitable numerical integration method, provides a strategy that converges. This convergence is verified by studying academic tests. In particular, the sensitivity problem of existing methods to the choice of anchor point is analyzed via the Ishigami case, and we point out that covariance decomposition survives from this issue. Also, with a truncated anchored ANOVA expansion, numerical results prove that the proposed approach is less sensitive to the anchor point. The covariance-based sensitivity indices (SI) are also used, compared to the variance-based SI. Furthermore, we emphasize that the covariance decomposition can be generalized in a straightforward way to decompose higher-order moments. For academic problems, results show the method converges to exact solution regarding both the skewness and kurtosis. Finally, the proposed method is applied on a realistic case, that is, estimating the chemical reactions uncertainties in a hypersonic flow around a space vehicle during an atmospheric reentry.

Abstract

An anchored analysis of variance (ANOVA) method is proposed in this paper to decompose the statistical moments. Compared to the standard ANOVA with mutually orthogonal component functions, the anchored ANOVA, with an arbitrary choice of the anchor point, loses the orthogonality if employing the same measure. However, an advantage of the anchored ANOVA consists in the considerably reduced number of deterministic solver's computations, which renders the uncertainty quantification of real engineering problems much easier. Different from existing methods, the covariance decomposition of the output variance is used in this work to take account of the interactions between non-orthogonal components, yielding an exact variance expansion and thus, with a suitable numerical integration method, provides a strategy that converges. This convergence is verified by studying academic tests. In particular, the sensitivity problem of existing methods to the choice of anchor point is analyzed via the Ishigami case, and we point out that covariance decomposition survives from this issue. Also, with a truncated anchored ANOVA expansion, numerical results prove that the proposed approach is less sensitive to the anchor point. The covariance-based sensitivity indices (SI) are also used, compared to the variance-based SI. Furthermore, we emphasize that the covariance decomposition can be generalized in a straightforward way to decompose higher-order moments. For academic problems, results show the method converges to exact solution regarding both the skewness and kurtosis. Finally, the proposed method is applied on a realistic case, that is, estimating the chemical reactions uncertainties in a hypersonic flow around a space vehicle during an atmospheric reentry.

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8 citations in Web of Science®
14 citations in Scopus®
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Additional indexing

Item Type:Journal Article, refereed, original work
Communities & Collections:07 Faculty of Science > Institute of Mathematics
Dewey Decimal Classification:510 Mathematics
Language:English
Date:1 June 2015
Deposited On:04 Feb 2016 10:56
Last Modified:08 Dec 2017 18:20
Publisher:Wiley-Blackwell Publishing, Inc.
ISSN:0029-5981
Publisher DOI:https://doi.org/10.1002/nme.4856

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