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The current and future burden of late-onset dementia in the United Kingdom: Estimates and interventions


Lewis, Fraser I; Torgerson, Paul R (2017). The current and future burden of late-onset dementia in the United Kingdom: Estimates and interventions. Alzheimer's & Dementia, 13(1):38-44.

Abstract

INTRODUCTION: We estimate the burden of late-onset dementia in the United Kingdom through to 2025 and assess the impact of potential interventions.
METHODS: We compute disability adjusted life years (DALYs) through to 2025 and consider three interventions, all assumed launched in 2018; (1) an optimistic limiting case of a 100% preventive intervention with immediate uptake of 100% of the population at risk; (2) an intervention which delays onset by 5 years, linear uptake to 50% after 5 years; (3) as (2) but uptake 75% after 5 years.
RESULTS: By 2025, the DALY burden will have increased by 42% from the Global Disease Burden 2010 estimate. Intervention results: (1) a 9% decrease by 2025; (2) a 33% increase; and (3) a 28% increase.
DISCUSSION: At current prevalence rates, the ability of an intervention to offset the projected increase in DALY burden of dementia in the United Kingdom by 2025 appears low.

Abstract

INTRODUCTION: We estimate the burden of late-onset dementia in the United Kingdom through to 2025 and assess the impact of potential interventions.
METHODS: We compute disability adjusted life years (DALYs) through to 2025 and consider three interventions, all assumed launched in 2018; (1) an optimistic limiting case of a 100% preventive intervention with immediate uptake of 100% of the population at risk; (2) an intervention which delays onset by 5 years, linear uptake to 50% after 5 years; (3) as (2) but uptake 75% after 5 years.
RESULTS: By 2025, the DALY burden will have increased by 42% from the Global Disease Burden 2010 estimate. Intervention results: (1) a 9% decrease by 2025; (2) a 33% increase; and (3) a 28% increase.
DISCUSSION: At current prevalence rates, the ability of an intervention to offset the projected increase in DALY burden of dementia in the United Kingdom by 2025 appears low.

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Additional indexing

Item Type:Journal Article, refereed, original work
Communities & Collections:05 Vetsuisse Faculty > Chair in Veterinary Epidemiology
Dewey Decimal Classification:570 Life sciences; biology
610 Medicine & health
Uncontrolled Keywords:Disease burden; Epidemiology; Mathematical model
Language:English
Date:2017
Deposited On:23 May 2016 15:32
Last Modified:06 May 2017 00:00
Publisher:Elsevier
ISSN:1552-5260
Publisher DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jalz.2016.03.013
PubMed ID:27157826

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