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The environmental accident at 'Schweizerhalle' and respiratory diseases in children: a time series analysis


Helfenstein, Ulrich; Ackermann-Liebrich, Ursula; Braun-Fahrländer, Charlotte; Wanner, Hans Urs (1991). The environmental accident at 'Schweizerhalle' and respiratory diseases in children: a time series analysis. Statistics in Medicine, 10(10):1481-92.

Abstract

During an investigation concerned with the relationship between air pollution and respiratory diseases in children, the 'Schweizerhalle' accident occurred when unknown amounts of pollutants were discharged into the environment. In that investigation, two series of medical data were collected during one year: (a) The daily relative number of preschool children, exhibiting diseases of the respiratory tract, who either came to the outpatients' clinic of the Children's Hospital or were reported by paediatricians in Basle; (b) The daily number of respiratory symptoms per child, observed in a group of randomly selected preschool children. The purpose of the present time series analysis is the assessment of possible change in these series after the environmental accident. The nature of the change is studied by complementary approaches. First, a forecast arising from models identified in the preaccident period is compared with the actual data. Thereafter, intervention models which adequately and parsimoniously represent the change are identified. Finally, an identification of a change-point is performed.

Abstract

During an investigation concerned with the relationship between air pollution and respiratory diseases in children, the 'Schweizerhalle' accident occurred when unknown amounts of pollutants were discharged into the environment. In that investigation, two series of medical data were collected during one year: (a) The daily relative number of preschool children, exhibiting diseases of the respiratory tract, who either came to the outpatients' clinic of the Children's Hospital or were reported by paediatricians in Basle; (b) The daily number of respiratory symptoms per child, observed in a group of randomly selected preschool children. The purpose of the present time series analysis is the assessment of possible change in these series after the environmental accident. The nature of the change is studied by complementary approaches. First, a forecast arising from models identified in the preaccident period is compared with the actual data. Thereafter, intervention models which adequately and parsimoniously represent the change are identified. Finally, an identification of a change-point is performed.

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Additional indexing

Item Type:Journal Article, refereed, original work
Communities & Collections:04 Faculty of Medicine > Epidemiology, Biostatistics and Prevention Institute (EBPI)
Dewey Decimal Classification:610 Medicine & health
Language:English
Date:October 1991
Deposited On:02 Aug 2016 14:45
Last Modified:07 Aug 2016 08:46
Publisher:Wiley-Blackwell Publishing, Inc.
ISSN:0277-6715
Publisher DOI:https://doi.org/10.1002/sim.4780101002
PubMed ID:1947506

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