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The ALPPS risk score: Avoiding futile use of ALPPS


Abstract

OBJECTIVES To create a prediction model identifying futile outcome in ALPPS (Associating Liver Partition and Portal vein ligation for Staged hepatectomy) before stage 1 and stage 2 surgery. BACKGROUND ALPPS is a 2-stage hepatectomy, which incorporates parenchymal transection at stage 1 enabling resection of extensive liver tumors. One of the major criticisms of ALPPS is the associated high mortality rate up to 20%. METHODS Using the International ALPPS Registry, a risk analysis for futile outcome (defined as 90-day or in-hospital mortality) was performed. Futility was modeled using multivariate regression analysis and a futility risk score formula was computed on the basis of the relative size of logistic model regression coefficients. RESULTS Among 528 ALPPS patients from 38 centers, a futile outcome was observed in 47 patients (9%). The pre-stage 1 model included age 67 years or older [odds ratio (OR) = 5.7], and tumor entity (OR = 3.8 for biliary tumors) as independent predictors of futility from multivariate analysis. For the pre-stage 1 model scores of 0, 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 were associated with futile risk of 2.7%, 4.9%, 8.6%, 15%, 24%, and 37%. The pre-stage 2 model included major complications (grade ≥ 3b) after stage 1 (OR = 3.4), serum bilirubin (OR = 4.4), serum creatinine (OR = 5.4), and cumulative pre-stage 1 risk score (OR = 1.9). The model predicted futility risk of 5%, 10%, 20%, and 50% for patients with scores of 3.9, 4.7, 5.5, and 6.9, respectively. CONCLUSIONS Both models have an excellent prediction to assess the individual risk of futile outcome after ALPPS surgery and can be used to avoid futile use of ALPPS.

Abstract

OBJECTIVES To create a prediction model identifying futile outcome in ALPPS (Associating Liver Partition and Portal vein ligation for Staged hepatectomy) before stage 1 and stage 2 surgery. BACKGROUND ALPPS is a 2-stage hepatectomy, which incorporates parenchymal transection at stage 1 enabling resection of extensive liver tumors. One of the major criticisms of ALPPS is the associated high mortality rate up to 20%. METHODS Using the International ALPPS Registry, a risk analysis for futile outcome (defined as 90-day or in-hospital mortality) was performed. Futility was modeled using multivariate regression analysis and a futility risk score formula was computed on the basis of the relative size of logistic model regression coefficients. RESULTS Among 528 ALPPS patients from 38 centers, a futile outcome was observed in 47 patients (9%). The pre-stage 1 model included age 67 years or older [odds ratio (OR) = 5.7], and tumor entity (OR = 3.8 for biliary tumors) as independent predictors of futility from multivariate analysis. For the pre-stage 1 model scores of 0, 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 were associated with futile risk of 2.7%, 4.9%, 8.6%, 15%, 24%, and 37%. The pre-stage 2 model included major complications (grade ≥ 3b) after stage 1 (OR = 3.4), serum bilirubin (OR = 4.4), serum creatinine (OR = 5.4), and cumulative pre-stage 1 risk score (OR = 1.9). The model predicted futility risk of 5%, 10%, 20%, and 50% for patients with scores of 3.9, 4.7, 5.5, and 6.9, respectively. CONCLUSIONS Both models have an excellent prediction to assess the individual risk of futile outcome after ALPPS surgery and can be used to avoid futile use of ALPPS.

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Item Type:Journal Article, refereed, original work
Communities & Collections:04 Faculty of Medicine > Epidemiology, Biostatistics and Prevention Institute (EBPI)
04 Faculty of Medicine > University Hospital Zurich > Clinic for Visceral and Transplantation Surgery
Dewey Decimal Classification:610 Medicine & health
Language:English
Date:22 July 2016
Deposited On:15 Aug 2016 12:40
Last Modified:08 Dec 2017 20:10
Publisher:Lippincott Williams & Wilkins
ISSN:0003-4932
Publisher DOI:https://doi.org/10.1097/SLA.0000000000001914
PubMed ID:27455156

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