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Adaptive methods in macroeconomic forecasting


Haefke, Christian; Natter, Martin; Soni, Tarun; Otruba, Heinrich (1997). Adaptive methods in macroeconomic forecasting. International Journal of Intelligent Systems in Accounting, Finance, 6(1):1-10.

Abstract

Adaptive methods are used to forecast three main Austrian economic indicators. We use a weighted recursive model as well as a neural network approach both with and without adaptive characteristics and compare our results to the forecasts of two Austrian research institutes. It appears that even models which use very limited information can outperform the two Institutes’ forcasts of the unemployment rate. For the case of most series adaptivity represents a possibility of improving the forecasts.

Abstract

Adaptive methods are used to forecast three main Austrian economic indicators. We use a weighted recursive model as well as a neural network approach both with and without adaptive characteristics and compare our results to the forecasts of two Austrian research institutes. It appears that even models which use very limited information can outperform the two Institutes’ forcasts of the unemployment rate. For the case of most series adaptivity represents a possibility of improving the forecasts.

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Additional indexing

Item Type:Journal Article, refereed, original work
Communities & Collections:03 Faculty of Economics > Department of Business Administration
Dewey Decimal Classification:330 Economics
Language:English
Date:1997
Deposited On:09 Dec 2016 10:48
Last Modified:09 Dec 2016 10:48
Publisher:Wiley-Blackwell Publishing, Inc.
ISSN:1055-615X
Publisher DOI:https://doi.org/10.1002/(SICI)1099-1174(199703)6:1<1::AID-ISAF118>3.0.CO;2-2
Other Identification Number:merlin-id:14219

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