Header

UZH-Logo

Maintenance Infos

Identification and monitoring of possible disruptive technologies by patent development paths and topic modeling


Rost, Katja; Momeni, Abdolreza (2016). Identification and monitoring of possible disruptive technologies by patent development paths and topic modeling. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 104:16-29.

Abstract

Understanding current technological changes is the basis for better forecasting of technological changes. Because technology is path dependent, monitoring past and current trends of technological development helps managers and decision makers to identify probable future technologies in order to prevent organizational failure. This study suggests a method based on patent-development paths, k-core analysis and topic modeling of past and current trends of technological development to identify technologies that have the potential to become disruptive technologies. We find that within the photovoltaic industry, thin-film technology is likely to replace the dominant technology, namely crystalline silicon. In addition, we identity the hidden technologies, namely multi-junction, dye-sensitized and concentration technologies, that have the potential to become disruptive technologies within the three main technologies of the photovoltaic industry.

Abstract

Understanding current technological changes is the basis for better forecasting of technological changes. Because technology is path dependent, monitoring past and current trends of technological development helps managers and decision makers to identify probable future technologies in order to prevent organizational failure. This study suggests a method based on patent-development paths, k-core analysis and topic modeling of past and current trends of technological development to identify technologies that have the potential to become disruptive technologies. We find that within the photovoltaic industry, thin-film technology is likely to replace the dominant technology, namely crystalline silicon. In addition, we identity the hidden technologies, namely multi-junction, dye-sensitized and concentration technologies, that have the potential to become disruptive technologies within the three main technologies of the photovoltaic industry.

Statistics

Citations

1 citation in Web of Science®
1 citation in Scopus®
Google Scholar™

Altmetrics

Downloads

1 download since deposited on 03 Feb 2017
1 download since 12 months
Detailed statistics

Additional indexing

Item Type:Journal Article, refereed, original work
Communities & Collections:06 Faculty of Arts > Institute of Sociology
Dewey Decimal Classification:300 Social sciences, sociology & anthropology
Language:English
Date:2016
Deposited On:03 Feb 2017 11:28
Last Modified:03 Feb 2017 11:28
Publisher:Elsevier
ISSN:0040-1625
Publisher DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2015.12.003

Download

Preview Icon on Download
Content: Published Version
Filetype: PDF - Registered users only
Size: 2MB
View at publisher

TrendTerms

TrendTerms displays relevant terms of the abstract of this publication and related documents on a map. The terms and their relations were extracted from ZORA using word statistics. Their timelines are taken from ZORA as well. The bubble size of a term is proportional to the number of documents where the term occurs. Red, orange, yellow and green colors are used for terms that occur in the current document; red indicates high interlinkedness of a term with other terms, orange, yellow and green decreasing interlinkedness. Blue is used for terms that have a relation with the terms in this document, but occur in other documents.
You can navigate and zoom the map. Mouse-hovering a term displays its timeline, clicking it yields the associated documents.

Author Collaborations