Header

UZH-Logo

Maintenance Infos

Incorporating social contact data in spatio-temporal models for infectious disease spread


Meyer, Sebastian; Held, Leonhard (2017). Incorporating social contact data in spatio-temporal models for infectious disease spread. Biostatistics, 18(2):338-351.

Abstract

SummaryRoutine public health surveillance of notifiable infectious diseases gives rise to weekly counts of reported cases-possibly stratified by region and/or age group. We investigate how an age-structured social contact matrix can be incorporated into a spatio-temporal endemic-epidemic model for infectious disease counts. To illustrate the approach, we analyze the spread of norovirus gastroenteritis over six age groups within the 12 districts of Berlin, 2011-2015, using contact data from the POLYMOD study. The proposed age-structured model outperforms alternative scenarios with homogeneous or no mixing between age groups. An extended contact model suggests a power transformation of the survey-based contact matrix toward more within-group transmission.

Abstract

SummaryRoutine public health surveillance of notifiable infectious diseases gives rise to weekly counts of reported cases-possibly stratified by region and/or age group. We investigate how an age-structured social contact matrix can be incorporated into a spatio-temporal endemic-epidemic model for infectious disease counts. To illustrate the approach, we analyze the spread of norovirus gastroenteritis over six age groups within the 12 districts of Berlin, 2011-2015, using contact data from the POLYMOD study. The proposed age-structured model outperforms alternative scenarios with homogeneous or no mixing between age groups. An extended contact model suggests a power transformation of the survey-based contact matrix toward more within-group transmission.

Statistics

Citations

2 citations in Web of Science®
2 citations in Scopus®
Google Scholar™

Altmetrics

Downloads

8 downloads since deposited on 06 Feb 2017
8 downloads since 12 months
Detailed statistics

Additional indexing

Item Type:Journal Article, refereed, original work
Communities & Collections:04 Faculty of Medicine > Epidemiology, Biostatistics and Prevention Institute (EBPI)
Dewey Decimal Classification:610 Medicine & health
Language:English
Date:1 April 2017
Deposited On:06 Feb 2017 08:17
Last Modified:21 Nov 2017 19:00
Publisher:Oxford University Press
ISSN:1465-4644
Free access at:PubMed ID. An embargo period may apply.
Publisher DOI:https://doi.org/10.1093/biostatistics/kxw051
PubMed ID:28025182

Download

Download PDF  'Incorporating social contact data in spatio-temporal models for infectious disease spread'.
Preview
Content: Published Version
Filetype: PDF
Size: 735kB
View at publisher
Licence: Creative Commons: Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0)