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How do cold-adapted plants respond to climatic cycles? Interglacial expansion explains current distribution and genomic diversity in Primula farinosa L


Theodoridis, Spyros; Randin, Christophe; Szövényi, Peter; Boucher, Florian C; Patsiou, Theofania Sotiria; Conti, Elena (2017). How do cold-adapted plants respond to climatic cycles? Interglacial expansion explains current distribution and genomic diversity in Primula farinosa L. Systematic Biology, 66(5):715-736.

Abstract

Understanding the effects of past climatic fluctuations on the distribution and population-size dynamics of cold-adapted species is essential for predicting their responses to ongoing global climate change. In spite of the heterogeneity of cold-adapted species, two main contrasting hypotheses have been proposed to explain their responses to Late Quaternary glacial cycles, namely, the interglacial contraction versus the interglacial expansion hypotheses. Here, we use the cold-adapted plant Primula farinosa to test two demographic models under each of the two alternative hypotheses and a fifth, null model. We first approximate the time and extent of demographic contractions and expansions during the Late Quaternary by projecting species distribution models across the last 72 ka. We also generate genome-wide sequence data using a Reduced Representation Library approach to reconstruct the spatial structure, genetic diversity, and phylogenetic relationships of lineages within P. farinosa. Finally, by integrating the results of climatic and genomic analyses in an Approximate Bayesian Computation framework, we propose the most likely model for the extent and direction of population-size changes in P. farinosa through the Late Quaternary. Our results support the interglacial expansion of P. farinosa, differing from the prevailing paradigm that the observed distribution of cold-adapted species currently fragmented in high altitude and latitude regions reflects the consequences of postglacial contraction processes. [Approximate Bayesian computation; climate change; hindcasting; Late Quaternary glacial cycles; paleoclimate; Reduced Representation Library; species distribution models.]

Abstract

Understanding the effects of past climatic fluctuations on the distribution and population-size dynamics of cold-adapted species is essential for predicting their responses to ongoing global climate change. In spite of the heterogeneity of cold-adapted species, two main contrasting hypotheses have been proposed to explain their responses to Late Quaternary glacial cycles, namely, the interglacial contraction versus the interglacial expansion hypotheses. Here, we use the cold-adapted plant Primula farinosa to test two demographic models under each of the two alternative hypotheses and a fifth, null model. We first approximate the time and extent of demographic contractions and expansions during the Late Quaternary by projecting species distribution models across the last 72 ka. We also generate genome-wide sequence data using a Reduced Representation Library approach to reconstruct the spatial structure, genetic diversity, and phylogenetic relationships of lineages within P. farinosa. Finally, by integrating the results of climatic and genomic analyses in an Approximate Bayesian Computation framework, we propose the most likely model for the extent and direction of population-size changes in P. farinosa through the Late Quaternary. Our results support the interglacial expansion of P. farinosa, differing from the prevailing paradigm that the observed distribution of cold-adapted species currently fragmented in high altitude and latitude regions reflects the consequences of postglacial contraction processes. [Approximate Bayesian computation; climate change; hindcasting; Late Quaternary glacial cycles; paleoclimate; Reduced Representation Library; species distribution models.]

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Additional indexing

Item Type:Journal Article, refereed, original work
Communities & Collections:07 Faculty of Science > Department of Systematic and Evolutionary Botany
07 Faculty of Science > Zurich-Basel Plant Science Center
Dewey Decimal Classification:580 Plants (Botany)
Language:English
Date:2017
Deposited On:21 Mar 2017 15:21
Last Modified:19 Feb 2018 07:47
Publisher:Oxford University Press
ISSN:1063-5157
OA Status:Closed
Publisher DOI:https://doi.org/10.1093/sysbio/syw114

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