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Estimation of the false negative fraction of a diagnostic kit through Bayesian regression model averaging


Ranyimbo, A O; Held, L (2005). Estimation of the false negative fraction of a diagnostic kit through Bayesian regression model averaging. Statistics in Medicine, 25(4):653-667.

Abstract

In modelling we usually endeavour to find a single 'best' model that explains the relationship between independent and dependent variables. Selection of a single model fails to take into account the prior uncertainty in the model space. The Bayesian model averaging (BMA) approach tackles this problem by considering the set of all possible models. We apply BMA approach to the estimation of the false negative fraction (FNF) in a particular case of a two-stage multiple screening test for bowel cancer. We find that after taking model uncertainty into consideration the estimate of the FNF obtained is largely dependent on the covariance structure of the priors. Results obtained when the Zellner g-prior for the prior variance is used is largely influenced by the magnitude of g.

Abstract

In modelling we usually endeavour to find a single 'best' model that explains the relationship between independent and dependent variables. Selection of a single model fails to take into account the prior uncertainty in the model space. The Bayesian model averaging (BMA) approach tackles this problem by considering the set of all possible models. We apply BMA approach to the estimation of the false negative fraction (FNF) in a particular case of a two-stage multiple screening test for bowel cancer. We find that after taking model uncertainty into consideration the estimate of the FNF obtained is largely dependent on the covariance structure of the priors. Results obtained when the Zellner g-prior for the prior variance is used is largely influenced by the magnitude of g.

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Additional indexing

Item Type:Journal Article, refereed, original work
Communities & Collections:04 Faculty of Medicine > Epidemiology, Biostatistics and Prevention Institute (EBPI)
Dewey Decimal Classification:610 Medicine & health
Date:September 2005
Deposited On:06 May 2009 12:02
Last Modified:05 Apr 2016 13:13
Publisher:Wiley-Blackwell
ISSN:0277-6715
Additional Information:The attached file is a preprint (accepted version) of an article published in Statistics in Medicine.
Publisher DOI:https://doi.org/10.1002/sim.2311
PubMed ID:16158401

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