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The analysis of heterogeneous time trends in multivariate age-period-cohort models


Riebler, A; Held, L (2010). The analysis of heterogeneous time trends in multivariate age-period-cohort models. Biostatistics, 11(1):57-69.

Abstract

Age–period–cohort (APC) models are frequently used to analyze mortality or morbidity rates stratified by
age group and period. For the case in which rates are given in different strata, multivariate APC models
have been considered only recently. Such models share a set of parameters, for example, the age effects,
while the other parameters may vary across strata. We show that differences of strata-specific effects
are identifiable. We then propose a Bayesian approach based on smoothing priors to estimate multivariate
APC models. This provides an alternative to maximum likelihood (ML) estimates of relative risk in the
case of equal intervals and gives useful results even in the case of unequal intervals, where ML estimates
have severe artifacts. This is illustrated with data on female mortality in Denmark and Norway and data on
chronic obstructive pulmonary disease mortality of males in England and Wales, stratified by 3 different
areas: Greater London, conurbations excluding Greater London, and nonconurbation areas.

Abstract

Age–period–cohort (APC) models are frequently used to analyze mortality or morbidity rates stratified by
age group and period. For the case in which rates are given in different strata, multivariate APC models
have been considered only recently. Such models share a set of parameters, for example, the age effects,
while the other parameters may vary across strata. We show that differences of strata-specific effects
are identifiable. We then propose a Bayesian approach based on smoothing priors to estimate multivariate
APC models. This provides an alternative to maximum likelihood (ML) estimates of relative risk in the
case of equal intervals and gives useful results even in the case of unequal intervals, where ML estimates
have severe artifacts. This is illustrated with data on female mortality in Denmark and Norway and data on
chronic obstructive pulmonary disease mortality of males in England and Wales, stratified by 3 different
areas: Greater London, conurbations excluding Greater London, and nonconurbation areas.

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21 citations in Scopus®
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Additional indexing

Item Type:Journal Article, refereed, original work
Communities & Collections:04 Faculty of Medicine > Epidemiology, Biostatistics and Prevention Institute (EBPI)
Dewey Decimal Classification:610 Medicine & health
Language:English
Date:13 October 2010
Deposited On:22 Jan 2010 06:58
Last Modified:05 Apr 2016 13:43
Publisher:Oxford University Press
ISSN:1465-4644
Publisher DOI:https://doi.org/10.1093/biostatistics/kxp037

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