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Bootstrapping the likelihood ratio cointegration test in error correction models with unknown lag order


Kascha, Christian; Trenkler, Carsten (2011). Bootstrapping the likelihood ratio cointegration test in error correction models with unknown lag order. Computational Statistics and Data Analysis, 55(2):1008-1017.

Abstract

The finite-sample size and power properties of bootstrapped likelihood ratio system cointegration tests are investigated via Monte Carlo simulations when the true lag order of the data generating process is unknown. Recursive bootstrap schemes are employed which differ in the way in which the lag order is chosen. The order is estimated by minimizing different information criteria and by combining the corresponding order estimates. It is found that, in comparison to the standard asymptotic likelihood ratio test based on an estimated lag order, bootstrapping can lead to improvements in small samples even when the true lag order is unknown, while the power loss is moderate.

Abstract

The finite-sample size and power properties of bootstrapped likelihood ratio system cointegration tests are investigated via Monte Carlo simulations when the true lag order of the data generating process is unknown. Recursive bootstrap schemes are employed which differ in the way in which the lag order is chosen. The order is estimated by minimizing different information criteria and by combining the corresponding order estimates. It is found that, in comparison to the standard asymptotic likelihood ratio test based on an estimated lag order, bootstrapping can lead to improvements in small samples even when the true lag order is unknown, while the power loss is moderate.

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Additional indexing

Item Type:Journal Article, refereed, original work
Communities & Collections:03 Faculty of Economics > Department of Economics
Dewey Decimal Classification:330 Economics
Language:English
Date:1 February 2011
Deposited On:12 Jan 2011 16:01
Last Modified:07 Dec 2017 05:38
Publisher:Elsevier
ISSN:0167-9473
Publisher DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.csda.2010.08.005

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