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A spatial analysis of multivariate output from regional climate models


Sain, S R; Furrer, R; Cressie, N C (2011). A spatial analysis of multivariate output from regional climate models. Annals of Applied Statistics, 5(1):150-175.

Abstract

Climate models have become an important tool in the study of climate and climate change, and ensemble experiments consisting of multiple climate-model runs are used in studying and quantifying the uncertainty in climate-model output. However, there are often only a limited number of model runs available for a particular experiment, and one of the statistical challenges is to characterize the distribution of the model output. To that end, we have developed a multivariate hierarchical approach, at the heart of which is a new representation of a multivariate Markov random field. This approach allows for flexible modeling of the multivariate spatial dependencies, including the cross-dependencies between variables. We demonstrate this statistical model on an ensemble arising from a regional-climate-model experiment over the western United States, and we focus on the projected change in seasonal temperature and precipitation over the next 50 years.

Abstract

Climate models have become an important tool in the study of climate and climate change, and ensemble experiments consisting of multiple climate-model runs are used in studying and quantifying the uncertainty in climate-model output. However, there are often only a limited number of model runs available for a particular experiment, and one of the statistical challenges is to characterize the distribution of the model output. To that end, we have developed a multivariate hierarchical approach, at the heart of which is a new representation of a multivariate Markov random field. This approach allows for flexible modeling of the multivariate spatial dependencies, including the cross-dependencies between variables. We demonstrate this statistical model on an ensemble arising from a regional-climate-model experiment over the western United States, and we focus on the projected change in seasonal temperature and precipitation over the next 50 years.

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Additional indexing

Item Type:Journal Article, refereed, original work
Communities & Collections:07 Faculty of Science > Institute of Mathematics
Dewey Decimal Classification:510 Mathematics
Language:English
Date:2011
Deposited On:03 May 2011 11:44
Last Modified:05 Apr 2016 14:54
Publisher:Institute of Mathematical Statistics
ISSN:1932-6157
Publisher DOI:https://doi.org/10.1214/10-AOAS369

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