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Multivariate modelling of infectious disease surveillance data


Paul, M; Held, L; Toschke, A M (2008). Multivariate modelling of infectious disease surveillance data. Statistics in Medicine, 27(29):6250-6267.

Abstract

This paper describes a model-based approach to analyse multivariate time series data on counts of infectious diseases. It extends a method previously described in the literature to deal with possible dependence between disease counts from different pathogens. In a spatio-temporal context it is proposed to include additional information on global dispersal of the pathogen in the model. Two examples are given: the first describes an analysis of weekly influenza and meningococcal disease counts from Germany. The second gives an analysis of the spatio-temporal spread of influenza in the U.S.A., 1996-2006, using air traffic information. Maximum likelihood estimates in this non-standard model class are obtained using general optimization routines, which are integrated in the R package surveillance. Copyright (c) 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Abstract

This paper describes a model-based approach to analyse multivariate time series data on counts of infectious diseases. It extends a method previously described in the literature to deal with possible dependence between disease counts from different pathogens. In a spatio-temporal context it is proposed to include additional information on global dispersal of the pathogen in the model. Two examples are given: the first describes an analysis of weekly influenza and meningococcal disease counts from Germany. The second gives an analysis of the spatio-temporal spread of influenza in the U.S.A., 1996-2006, using air traffic information. Maximum likelihood estimates in this non-standard model class are obtained using general optimization routines, which are integrated in the R package surveillance. Copyright (c) 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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42 citations in Web of Science®
38 citations in Scopus®
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Additional indexing

Item Type:Journal Article, refereed, original work
Communities & Collections:04 Faculty of Medicine > Epidemiology, Biostatistics and Prevention Institute (EBPI)
Dewey Decimal Classification:610 Medicine & health
Language:English
Date:2008
Deposited On:03 Dec 2008 08:58
Last Modified:05 Apr 2016 12:37
Publisher:Wiley-Blackwell
ISSN:0277-6715
Additional Information:Published in http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/journal/121410615/abstract?CRETRY=1&SRETRY=0
Publisher DOI:https://doi.org/10.1002/sim.3440
PubMed ID:18800337

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