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Analysis of a terror network from a system dynamics perspective


Schönenberger, Lukas; Schenker-Wicki, Andrea; Beck, Mathias (2012). Analysis of a terror network from a system dynamics perspective. UZH Business Working Paper Series 322, University of Zurich.

Abstract

Terrorism is a complex problem and therefore simple solutions focusing just on one aspect are destined to fail. We have to capture terrorism in its entirety and system dynamics offers various tools to support us. We developed a semi-quantitative system dynamics approach aiming to characterize relationships between different variables and their impact on the system as a whole. The authors established a network to model terrorism consisting of 16 variables and performed different analysis to gain a better understanding of the mechanisms behind terrorism. We showed how to determine which variables are suited for intervention and described in detail their effects on the influence of the terrorist organization. The paper gives also an insight how to elicit elements that destabilize and ultimately break down the terror network. Because we clarify our approach using fictitious numbers, the relevance of this work is not so much in specific policy recommendations that it proposes as in the framework for reasoning that it provides.

Abstract

Terrorism is a complex problem and therefore simple solutions focusing just on one aspect are destined to fail. We have to capture terrorism in its entirety and system dynamics offers various tools to support us. We developed a semi-quantitative system dynamics approach aiming to characterize relationships between different variables and their impact on the system as a whole. The authors established a network to model terrorism consisting of 16 variables and performed different analysis to gain a better understanding of the mechanisms behind terrorism. We showed how to determine which variables are suited for intervention and described in detail their effects on the influence of the terrorist organization. The paper gives also an insight how to elicit elements that destabilize and ultimately break down the terror network. Because we clarify our approach using fictitious numbers, the relevance of this work is not so much in specific policy recommendations that it proposes as in the framework for reasoning that it provides.

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Additional indexing

Item Type:Working Paper
Communities & Collections:03 Faculty of Economics > Department of Business Administration
Dewey Decimal Classification:330 Economics
Language:English
Date:2012
Deposited On:14 Nov 2012 14:03
Last Modified:13 Aug 2017 11:53
Series Name:UZH Business Working Paper Series
Number of Pages:38
Free access at:Official URL. An embargo period may apply.
Official URL:http://ssrn.com/abstract=2171240
Other Identification Number:merlin-id:7440

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