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The group size and loyalty of football fans: a two-stage estimation procedure to compare customer potential across teams


Brandes, Leif; Franck, Egon; Theiler, Philipp (2013). The group size and loyalty of football fans: a two-stage estimation procedure to compare customer potential across teams. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A, 176(2):347-369.

Abstract

The paper presents estimation results on the size and loyalty of sport teams’ supporter groups in professional German football. Based on a novel two-stage estimation procedure, we find clear evidence for heterogeneity across teams. In the first stage, a random-utility model for a representative consumer is modelled and fitted to more than 1700 matches over the seasons 1996–2001. In the second step, attendance probabilities are predicted for the seasons 2002–2003 to estimate group sizes. A team's group size is positively correlated with its memberships (inline image.61; p<0.01), fan clubs (inline image.59; p<0.01) and merchandizing revenues (inline image.49; p<0.05). Noteworthy is that no similar correlations can be found for a team's home town population which has been the standard measure for market size in applied work so far.

Abstract

The paper presents estimation results on the size and loyalty of sport teams’ supporter groups in professional German football. Based on a novel two-stage estimation procedure, we find clear evidence for heterogeneity across teams. In the first stage, a random-utility model for a representative consumer is modelled and fitted to more than 1700 matches over the seasons 1996–2001. In the second step, attendance probabilities are predicted for the seasons 2002–2003 to estimate group sizes. A team's group size is positively correlated with its memberships (inline image.61; p<0.01), fan clubs (inline image.59; p<0.01) and merchandizing revenues (inline image.49; p<0.05). Noteworthy is that no similar correlations can be found for a team's home town population which has been the standard measure for market size in applied work so far.

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Additional indexing

Item Type:Journal Article, refereed, original work
Communities & Collections:03 Faculty of Economics > Department of Business Administration
Dewey Decimal Classification:330 Economics
Language:English
Date:2013
Deposited On:11 Dec 2012 14:21
Last Modified:05 Apr 2016 16:10
Publisher:Wiley-Blackwell
Series Name:Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A
ISSN:0964-1998
Free access at:Official URL. An embargo period may apply.
Publisher DOI:https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-985X.2011.01033.x
Related URLs:http://econpapers.repec.org/paper/isowpaper/0126.htm
http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1599591
Other Identification Number:merlin-id:7638

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