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Forecasting media market development


von Rimscha, Björn; Russi, Loris; Siegert, Gabriele (2011). Forecasting media market development. Working Paper of IMPZ - media economics management division 08, University of Zurich.

Abstract

This paper gives an outlook about the development of the Swiss media industry in the coming years. The outlook is based on two cornerstones: the economic development as the basis of a media system within a market economy and the social function of media within modern democracies. A two-tier research design is used to forecast the present development. First, ARIMA forecasting of audience demand and advertising expenditures depict the economic development on the base of secondary data. Second, scenario analysis using focus groups of industry representatives are introduced to predict the economic development as well as the role of the media within society. The results from the ARIMA forecasting show a grim outlook for the press both with regard to audience and advertising demand. On the other hand demand for electronic media is stable or even growing in the case of internet use. Apart from broadcasting the industry representatives do not view regulation of media as a crucial factor of the industry development. But every focus group identified the funding and as such the economic base as a key dimension. As such the results from both analyses can be partly integrated with the ARIMA forecasts helping to assess the probability of the different scenarios depicted by the industry representatives. With regard to the functional role of the media within society all the representative point to the state and in particular the public broadcaster that should cater for the public value.

Abstract

This paper gives an outlook about the development of the Swiss media industry in the coming years. The outlook is based on two cornerstones: the economic development as the basis of a media system within a market economy and the social function of media within modern democracies. A two-tier research design is used to forecast the present development. First, ARIMA forecasting of audience demand and advertising expenditures depict the economic development on the base of secondary data. Second, scenario analysis using focus groups of industry representatives are introduced to predict the economic development as well as the role of the media within society. The results from the ARIMA forecasting show a grim outlook for the press both with regard to audience and advertising demand. On the other hand demand for electronic media is stable or even growing in the case of internet use. Apart from broadcasting the industry representatives do not view regulation of media as a crucial factor of the industry development. But every focus group identified the funding and as such the economic base as a key dimension. As such the results from both analyses can be partly integrated with the ARIMA forecasts helping to assess the probability of the different scenarios depicted by the industry representatives. With regard to the functional role of the media within society all the representative point to the state and in particular the public broadcaster that should cater for the public value.

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Additional indexing

Item Type:Working Paper
Communities & Collections:06 Faculty of Arts > Institute of Mass Communication and Media Research
Dewey Decimal Classification:700 Arts
Language:English
Date:2011
Deposited On:15 Aug 2013 14:09
Last Modified:06 Apr 2017 13:44
Series Name:Working Paper of IMPZ - media economics management division
Related URLs:http://www.ipmz.uzh.ch/Abteilungen/Medienoekonomie/Forschung/Arbeitspapiere_en.html

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