Header

UZH-Logo

Maintenance Infos

Predictive systems ecology


Evans, M R; Bithell, M; Cornell, S J; Dall, S R X; Diaz, S; Emmott, S; Ernande, B; Grimm, V; Hodgson, D J; Lewis, S L; Mace, G M; Morecroft, M; Moustakas, A; Murphy, E; Newbold, T; Norris, K J; Petchey, O; Smith, M; Travis, J M J; Benton, T G (2013). Predictive systems ecology. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London, Series B: Biological Sciences, 280(1771):20131452.

Abstract

Human societies, and their well-being, depend to a significant extent on the state of the ecosystems that surround them. These ecosystems are changing rapidly usually in response to anthropogenic changes in the environment. To determine the likely impact of environmental change on ecosystems and the best ways to manage them, it would be desirable to be able to predict their future states. We present a proposal to develop the paradigm of predictive systems ecology, explicitly to understand and predict the properties and behaviour of ecological systems. We discuss the necessary and desirable features of predictive systems ecology models. There are places where predictive systems ecology is already being practised and we summarize a range of terrestrial and marine examples. Significant challenges remain but we suggest that ecology would benefit both as a scientific discipline and increase its impact in society if it were to embrace the need to become more predictive.

Abstract

Human societies, and their well-being, depend to a significant extent on the state of the ecosystems that surround them. These ecosystems are changing rapidly usually in response to anthropogenic changes in the environment. To determine the likely impact of environmental change on ecosystems and the best ways to manage them, it would be desirable to be able to predict their future states. We present a proposal to develop the paradigm of predictive systems ecology, explicitly to understand and predict the properties and behaviour of ecological systems. We discuss the necessary and desirable features of predictive systems ecology models. There are places where predictive systems ecology is already being practised and we summarize a range of terrestrial and marine examples. Significant challenges remain but we suggest that ecology would benefit both as a scientific discipline and increase its impact in society if it were to embrace the need to become more predictive.

Statistics

Citations

41 citations in Web of Science®
49 citations in Scopus®
Google Scholar™

Altmetrics

Downloads

1 download since deposited on 22 Jan 2014
0 downloads since 12 months
Detailed statistics

Additional indexing

Item Type:Journal Article, refereed, original work
Communities & Collections:07 Faculty of Science > Institute of Evolutionary Biology and Environmental Studies
Dewey Decimal Classification:570 Life sciences; biology
590 Animals (Zoology)
Language:English
Date:2013
Deposited On:22 Jan 2014 12:13
Last Modified:05 Apr 2016 17:23
Publisher:Royal Society Publishing
ISSN:0962-8452
Free access at:Publisher DOI. An embargo period may apply.
Publisher DOI:https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2013.1452

Download

Preview Icon on Download
Content: Published Version
Filetype: PDF - Registered users only
Size: 465kB
View at publisher