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Dynamics of the force of infection: insights from echinococcus multilocularis infection in foxes


Lewis, Fraser I; Otero-Abad, Belen; Hegglin, Daniel; Deplazes, Peter; Torgerson, Paul R (2014). Dynamics of the force of infection: insights from echinococcus multilocularis infection in foxes. PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, 8(3):e2731.

Abstract

Characterizing the force of infection (FOI) is an essential part of planning cost effective control strategies for zoonotic diseases. Echinococcus multilocularis is the causative agent of alveolar echinococcosis in humans, a serious disease with a high fatality rate and an increasing global spread. Red foxes are high prevalence hosts of E. multilocularis. Through a mathematical modelling approach, using field data collected from in and around the city of Zurich, Switzerland, we find compelling evidence that the FOI is periodic with highly variable amplitude, and, while this amplitude is similar across habitat types, the mean FOI differs markedly between urban and periurban habitats suggesting a considerable risk differential. The FOI, during an annual cycle, ranges from (0.1,0.8) insults (95% CI) in urban habitat in the summer to (9.4, 9.7) (95% CI) in periurban (rural) habitat in winter. Such large temporal and spatial variations in FOI suggest that control strategies are optimal when tailored to local FOI dynamics.

Abstract

Characterizing the force of infection (FOI) is an essential part of planning cost effective control strategies for zoonotic diseases. Echinococcus multilocularis is the causative agent of alveolar echinococcosis in humans, a serious disease with a high fatality rate and an increasing global spread. Red foxes are high prevalence hosts of E. multilocularis. Through a mathematical modelling approach, using field data collected from in and around the city of Zurich, Switzerland, we find compelling evidence that the FOI is periodic with highly variable amplitude, and, while this amplitude is similar across habitat types, the mean FOI differs markedly between urban and periurban habitats suggesting a considerable risk differential. The FOI, during an annual cycle, ranges from (0.1,0.8) insults (95% CI) in urban habitat in the summer to (9.4, 9.7) (95% CI) in periurban (rural) habitat in winter. Such large temporal and spatial variations in FOI suggest that control strategies are optimal when tailored to local FOI dynamics.

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Additional indexing

Item Type:Journal Article, refereed, original work
Communities & Collections:05 Vetsuisse Faculty > Institute of Parasitology
04 Faculty of Medicine > Institute of Parasitology

05 Vetsuisse Faculty > Chair in Veterinary Epidemiology
Dewey Decimal Classification:570 Life sciences; biology
610 Medicine & health
600 Technology
Language:English
Date:2014
Deposited On:26 Mar 2014 15:17
Last Modified:08 Dec 2017 04:51
Publisher:Public Library of Science (PLoS)
ISSN:1935-2727
Free access at:PubMed ID. An embargo period may apply.
Publisher DOI:https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0002731
PubMed ID:24651596

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