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Does bettor sentiment affect bookmaker pricing? - Zurich Open Repository and Archive


Flepp, Raphael; Nüesch, Stephan; Franck, Egon (2016). Does bettor sentiment affect bookmaker pricing? Journal of Sports Economics, 17(1):3-11.

Abstract

This article uses bookmaker betting volume data to test the influence of bettor sentiment on bookmaker pricing in the over/under 2.5 goals betting market. In an average match, more than 80% of the volume wagered is concentrated on the over bet as cheering for a high score is more attractive than betting against it. We do not find that this volume imbalance is associated with systematic biases in bettor returns. High price transparency seems to prevent bookmakers from systematically distorting their odds in order to exploit bettor sentiment.

Abstract

This article uses bookmaker betting volume data to test the influence of bettor sentiment on bookmaker pricing in the over/under 2.5 goals betting market. In an average match, more than 80% of the volume wagered is concentrated on the over bet as cheering for a high score is more attractive than betting against it. We do not find that this volume imbalance is associated with systematic biases in bettor returns. High price transparency seems to prevent bookmakers from systematically distorting their odds in order to exploit bettor sentiment.

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1 citation in Web of Science®
1 citation in Scopus®
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Additional indexing

Item Type:Journal Article, refereed, original work
Communities & Collections:03 Faculty of Economics > Department of Business Administration
Dewey Decimal Classification:330 Economics
Language:English
Date:2016
Deposited On:08 Oct 2014 16:02
Last Modified:05 Apr 2016 18:25
Publisher:Sage Publications Ltd.
ISSN:1527-0025
Publisher DOI:https://doi.org/10.1177/1527002514521427

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