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Vorgehen zur agentenbasierten Modellierung eines schweizerischen Waldenergieholzmarktes


Kostadinov, Fabian; Steubing, Bernhard; Holm, Stefan (2012). Vorgehen zur agentenbasierten Modellierung eines schweizerischen Waldenergieholzmarktes. Schweizerische Zeitschrift für Forstwesen (Swiss Forestry Journal), 163(10):422-431.

Abstract

It is helpful to develop agent-based model based on a structured procedure. The chosen traditional software engineering approach is mainly composed of five phases: 1) the analysis of the observed system; 2) the model development; 3) the detailed design; 4) the actual software implementation; and 5) the model's evaluation. The different phases are briefly described by the respective goals, tasks and expected results. This contribution shows the development of a Swiss forest wood fuel market with specific examples for each phase. The essential work steps and intermediate results are demonstrated from the start to a fully developed agent-based model. Finally it is demonstrated how to carry through scenario analyses for the modeled forest wood fuel market. The simulation example shows first that, as is to be expected, a reduction of the wood supply leads to increasing forest wood fuel prices. Second, it shows how the decision behavior of wood suppliers can additionally modify the price of forest wood fuel in a situation of scarce supply, whereas this effect is smaller in a situation of balanced supply and demand.

Abstract

It is helpful to develop agent-based model based on a structured procedure. The chosen traditional software engineering approach is mainly composed of five phases: 1) the analysis of the observed system; 2) the model development; 3) the detailed design; 4) the actual software implementation; and 5) the model's evaluation. The different phases are briefly described by the respective goals, tasks and expected results. This contribution shows the development of a Swiss forest wood fuel market with specific examples for each phase. The essential work steps and intermediate results are demonstrated from the start to a fully developed agent-based model. Finally it is demonstrated how to carry through scenario analyses for the modeled forest wood fuel market. The simulation example shows first that, as is to be expected, a reduction of the wood supply leads to increasing forest wood fuel prices. Second, it shows how the decision behavior of wood suppliers can additionally modify the price of forest wood fuel in a situation of scarce supply, whereas this effect is smaller in a situation of balanced supply and demand.

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Additional indexing

Item Type:Journal Article, refereed, original work
Communities & Collections:03 Faculty of Economics > Department of Informatics
Dewey Decimal Classification:000 Computer science, knowledge & systems
Language:German
Date:2012
Deposited On:21 Oct 2014 11:48
Last Modified:27 Apr 2017 21:28
Publisher:Schweizerischer Forstverein
ISSN:0036-7818
Free access at:Publisher DOI. An embargo period may apply.
Publisher DOI:https://doi.org/10.3188/szf.2012.0422
Other Identification Number:merlin-id:10339

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