Publication: Empirical evidence on the "Never Change a Winning Team" heuristic
Empirical evidence on the "Never Change a Winning Team" heuristic
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Nüesch, S., & Haas, H. (2012). Empirical evidence on the “Never Change a Winning Team” heuristic. Jahrbücher Für Nationalökonomie Und Statistik = Journal of Economics and Statistics, 232/3, 247–257.
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“Never change a winning team” is a well-known heuristic that recommends not altering the composition of successful teams. Using game-level observations of the highest German soccer league over a period of seven seasons, we find that the number of changes in the starting line-up is significantly lower after wins than after losses, taking suspensions and unobserved team heterogeneity into account. We show that teams of coaches who follow the heuristic do not win significantly more often, and that coaches significantly decrease the numbe
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Nüesch, S., & Haas, H. (2012). Empirical evidence on the “Never Change a Winning Team” heuristic. Jahrbücher Für Nationalökonomie Und Statistik = Journal of Economics and Statistics, 232/3, 247–257.