Bridging the gap between HIV epidemiology and antiretroviral resistance evolution: Modelling the spread of resistance in South Africa

Hauser, Anthony; Kusejko, Katharina; Johnson, Leigh F; Wandeler, Gilles; Riou, Julien; Goldstein, Fardo; Egger, Matthias; Kouyos, Roger D

doi:10.1371/journal.pcbi.1007083

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Hauser, A., Kusejko, K., Johnson, L. F., Wandeler, G., Riou, J., Goldstein, F., Egger, M., & Kouyos, R. D. (2019). Bridging the gap between HIV epidemiology and antiretroviral resistance evolution: Modelling the spread of resistance in South Africa. PLoS Computational Biology, 15(6), e1007083. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1007083

Abstract

The scale-up of antiretroviral therapy (ART) in South Africa substantially reduced AIDS-related deaths and new HIV infections. However, its success is threatened by the emergence of resistance to non-nucleoside reverse-transcriptase inhibitors (NNRTI). The MARISA (Modelling Antiretroviral drug Resistance In South Africa) model presented here aims at investigating the time trends and factors driving NNRTI resistance in South Africa. MARISA is a compartmental model that includes the key aspects of the local HIV epidemic: continuum of ca