Publication: A model for an epidemic with contact tracing and cluster isolation, and a detection paradox
A model for an epidemic with contact tracing and cluster isolation, and a detection paradox
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Bertoin, J. (2022). A model for an epidemic with contact tracing and cluster isolation, and a detection paradox (2201.01924; ArXiv.Org). https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2201.01924
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We determine the distributions of some random variables related to a simple model of an epidemic with contact tracing and cluster isolation. This enables us to apply general limit theorems for super-critical Crump-Mode-Jagers branching processes. Notably, we compute explicitly the asymptotic proportion of isolated clusters with a given size amongst all isolated clusters, conditionally on survival of the epidemic. Somewhat surprisingly, the latter differs from the distribution of the size of a typical cluster at the time of its detecti
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Bertoin, J. (2022). A model for an epidemic with contact tracing and cluster isolation, and a detection paradox (2201.01924; ArXiv.Org). https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2201.01924