Optimizing Campaigns for Changing Routine Behaviors by Using an Empirically Calibrated Microsimulation Model

Abstract

We used the model of prospective memory and habit development to derive recommendations for designing behavior-change campaigns that used prompts or household visits as reminders. We followed an exemplary procedure comprising the calibration of the model, based on 48 time series gathered during a campaign promoting recycling habits and a systematic exploration of the solution space. For the parameter estimation, an algorithm was developed that worked at two levels. A higher level algorithm optimized parameters that were set to equal v Show more