Publication: Really uncertain business cycles
Really uncertain business cycles
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Bloom, N., Floetotto, M., Jaimovich, N., Saporta-Eksten, I., & Terry, S. J. (2018). Really uncertain business cycles. Econometrica, 86(3), 1031–1065. https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA10927
Abstract
Abstract
Abstract
We investigate the role of uncertainty in business cycles. First, we demonstrate that microeconomic uncertainty rises sharply during recessions, including during the Great Recession of 2007–2009. Second, we show that uncertainty shocks can generate drops in gross domestic product of around 2.5% in a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with heterogeneous firms. However, we also find that uncertainty shocks need to be supplemented by first‐moment shocks to fit consumption over the cycle. So our data and simulations suggest rece
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- Bloom, Nicholas
- Floetotto, Max
- Jaimovich, Nir
- Saporta-Eksten, Itay
- Terry, Stephen J
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Bloom, N., Floetotto, M., Jaimovich, N., Saporta-Eksten, I., & Terry, S. J. (2018). Really uncertain business cycles. Econometrica, 86(3), 1031–1065. https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA10927
