Abstract
A simple method for real-time early warning of gravity-driven rupture that considers both the heterogeneity of natural media and characteristics of acoustic emissions attenuation is proposed. The method capitalizes on codetection of elastic waves emanating from microcracks by multiple and spatially separated sensors. Event codetection is considered as surrogate for large event size with more frequent codetected events marking imminence of catastrophic failure. Using a spatially explicit fiber bundle numerical model with spatially correlated mechanical strength and two load redistribution rules, we constructed a range of mechanical failure scenarios and associated failure events (mapped into acoustic emission) in space and time. Analysis considering hypothetical arrays of sensors and consideration of signal attenuation demonstrate the potential of the codetection principles even for insensitive sensors to provide early warning for imminent global failure.
Faillettaz, Jérome