Impact of social preparedness on flood early warning systems

Abstract

Flood early warning systems play a major role in the disaster risk reduction paradigm as cost-effective methods to mitigate flood disaster damage. The connections and feedbacks between the hydro-logical and social spheres of early warning systems are increasingly being considered as key aspects for suc-cessful flood mitigation. The behavior of the public and first responders during flood situations, determinedby their preparedness, is heavily influenced by many behavioral traits such as perceived benefits, risk aware-ness, or even denial. In this study, we use the recency of flood experiences as a proxy for social prepared-ness to assess its impact on the efficiency of flood early warning systems through a simple stylized modeland implemented this model using a simple mathematical description. The main findings, which are basedon synthetic data, point to the importance of social preparedness for flood loss mitigation, especially in cir-cumstances where the technical forecasting and warning capabilities are limited. Furthermore, we foundthat efforts to promote and preserve social preparedness may help to reduce disaster-induced losses byalmost one half. The findings provide important insights into the role of social preparedness that may helpguide decision-making in the field of flood early warning systems.