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Assessing the danger of self-sustained HIV epidemics in heterosexuals by population based phylogenetic cluster analysis


Swiss HIV Cohort Study; Turk, Teja; Bachmann, Nadine; Kadelka, Claus; Böni, Jürg; Yerly, Sabine; Aubert, Vincent; Klimkait, Thomas; Battegay, Manuel; Bernasconi, Enos; Calmy, Alexandra; Cavassini, Matthias; Furrer, Hansjakob; Hoffmann, Matthias; Günthard, Huldrych F; Kouyos, Roger D; et al (2017). Assessing the danger of self-sustained HIV epidemics in heterosexuals by population based phylogenetic cluster analysis. eLife, 6:e28721.

Abstract

Assessing the danger of transition of HIV transmission from a concentrated to a generalized epidemic is of major importance for public health. In this study, we develop a phylogeny-based statistical approach to address this question. As a case study, we use this to investigate the trends and determinants of HIV transmission among Swiss heterosexuals. We extract the corresponding transmission clusters from a phylogenetic tree. To capture the incomplete sampling, the delayed introduction of imported infections to Switzerland, and potential factors associated with basic reproductive number R0, we extend the branching process model to infer transmission parameters. Overall, the R0 is estimated to be 0.44 (95%-confidence interval 0.42-0.46) and it is decreasing by 11% per 10 years (4%-17%). Our findings indicate rather diminishing HIV transmission among Swiss heterosexuals far below the epidemic threshold. Generally, our approach allows to assess the danger of self-sustained epidemics from any viral sequence data.

Abstract

Assessing the danger of transition of HIV transmission from a concentrated to a generalized epidemic is of major importance for public health. In this study, we develop a phylogeny-based statistical approach to address this question. As a case study, we use this to investigate the trends and determinants of HIV transmission among Swiss heterosexuals. We extract the corresponding transmission clusters from a phylogenetic tree. To capture the incomplete sampling, the delayed introduction of imported infections to Switzerland, and potential factors associated with basic reproductive number R0, we extend the branching process model to infer transmission parameters. Overall, the R0 is estimated to be 0.44 (95%-confidence interval 0.42-0.46) and it is decreasing by 11% per 10 years (4%-17%). Our findings indicate rather diminishing HIV transmission among Swiss heterosexuals far below the epidemic threshold. Generally, our approach allows to assess the danger of self-sustained epidemics from any viral sequence data.

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Additional indexing

Item Type:Journal Article, refereed, original work
Communities & Collections:04 Faculty of Medicine > Institute of Medical Virology
04 Faculty of Medicine > University Hospital Zurich > Clinic for Infectious Diseases
Dewey Decimal Classification:610 Medicine & health
Language:English
Date:12 September 2017
Deposited On:07 Nov 2017 13:53
Last Modified:19 Aug 2018 11:06
Publisher:eLife Sciences Publications Ltd.
ISSN:2050-084X
OA Status:Gold
Free access at:PubMed ID. An embargo period may apply.
Publisher DOI:https://doi.org/10.7554/eLife.28721
PubMed ID:28895527
Project Information:
  • : FunderSNSF
  • : Grant ID324730_159868
  • : Project TitleHIV-1 Transmission in Switzerland: viral transmission traits, superinfection and drug resistance

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