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Zweitstimme.org. : ein strukturell-dynamisches Vorhersagemodell für Bundestagswahlen


Munzert, Simon; Stoetzer, Lukas F; Gschwend, Thomas; Neunhoeffer, Marcel; Sternberg, Sebastian (2017). Zweitstimme.org. : ein strukturell-dynamisches Vorhersagemodell für Bundestagswahlen. Politische Vierteljahresschrift, 58(3):418-441.

Abstract

We present results of an ex-ante forecast of party-specific vote shares at the German Federal Election 2017. To that end, we combine data from published trial heat polls with structural information. The model takes care of the multi-party nature of the setting and allows making statements about the probability of certain events, such as the plurality of votes for a party or the majority for coalition options in parliament. The forecasts of our model are continuously being updated on the platform zweitstimme.org. The value of our approach goes beyond the realms of academia: We equip journalists, political pundits, and ordinary citizens with information that can help make sense of the parties’ latent support and ultimately make voting decisions better informed.

Abstract

We present results of an ex-ante forecast of party-specific vote shares at the German Federal Election 2017. To that end, we combine data from published trial heat polls with structural information. The model takes care of the multi-party nature of the setting and allows making statements about the probability of certain events, such as the plurality of votes for a party or the majority for coalition options in parliament. The forecasts of our model are continuously being updated on the platform zweitstimme.org. The value of our approach goes beyond the realms of academia: We equip journalists, political pundits, and ordinary citizens with information that can help make sense of the parties’ latent support and ultimately make voting decisions better informed.

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Additional indexing

Item Type:Journal Article, refereed, original work
Communities & Collections:06 Faculty of Arts > Institute of Political Science
Dewey Decimal Classification:320 Political science
Uncontrolled Keywords:Bundestag election, forecast, polls, Bayesian modeling, probability, , Bundestagswahl, Vorhersage, Umfragen, Bayesianische Modellierung, Wahrscheinlichkeit
Language:German
Date:2017
Deposited On:14 Dec 2017 12:47
Last Modified:19 Feb 2018 09:35
Publisher:Nomos
ISSN:0032-3470
OA Status:Green
Publisher DOI:https://doi.org/10.5771/0032-3470-2017-3-418
Official URL:https://www.nomos-elibrary.de/10.5771/0032-3470-2017-3-418.pdf?page=1
Related URLs:https://www.nomos-elibrary.de/10.5771/0032-3470-2017-3-418/zweitstimme-org-ein-strukturell-dynamisches-vorhersagemodell-fuer-bundestagswahlen-jahrgang-58-2017-heft-3?page=1 (Publisher)

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