Header

UZH-Logo

Maintenance Infos

Nicht was Du denkst! Was wir wirklich von Wahlvorhersagen lernen können


Strijbis, Oliver (2017). Nicht was Du denkst! Was wir wirklich von Wahlvorhersagen lernen können. Politische Vierteljahresschrift, 58(3):442-451.

Abstract

As this forum demonstrates, the competition between election forecasting models along the US model becomes standard also in Germany. This raises the question about the scientific relevance of this undertaking. It is often argued that election forecasts provide a particularly hard and hence good test for the falsification of theories of electoral behavior. In this contribution, I contest this argument and show that the forecast models presented in this issue hardly contribute to the falsification of theories. Instead I refer to an often overlooked relevance of election forecasts consisting in the models‘ potential for opera-tionalizing important variables. I illustrate my argument by referring to the literature on prediction markets.

Abstract

As this forum demonstrates, the competition between election forecasting models along the US model becomes standard also in Germany. This raises the question about the scientific relevance of this undertaking. It is often argued that election forecasts provide a particularly hard and hence good test for the falsification of theories of electoral behavior. In this contribution, I contest this argument and show that the forecast models presented in this issue hardly contribute to the falsification of theories. Instead I refer to an often overlooked relevance of election forecasts consisting in the models‘ potential for opera-tionalizing important variables. I illustrate my argument by referring to the literature on prediction markets.

Statistics

Citations

Altmetrics

Downloads

32 downloads since deposited on 17 Jan 2018
32 downloads since 12 months
Detailed statistics

Additional indexing

Item Type:Journal Article, refereed, original work
Communities & Collections:06 Faculty of Arts > Institute of Political Science
Dewey Decimal Classification:320 Political science
Uncontrolled Keywords:Bundestag election, forecast, prediction markets, falsification, operationalization, , Bundestagswahl, Vorhersage, Prognosemärkte, Falsifizierung, Operationalisierung
Language:German
Date:2017
Deposited On:17 Jan 2018 14:27
Last Modified:19 Feb 2018 10:31
Publisher:Nomos
ISSN:0032-3470
OA Status:Green
Publisher DOI:https://doi.org/10.5771/0032-3470-2017-3-442

Download

Download PDF  'Nicht was Du denkst! Was wir wirklich von Wahlvorhersagen lernen können'.
Preview
Language: German
Filetype: PDF
Size: 2MB
View at publisher