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Health impact assessment of cycling network expansions in European cities


Abstract

We conducted a health impact assessment (HIA) of cycling network expansions in seven European cities. We modeled the association between cycling network length and cycling mode share and estimated health impacts of the expansion of cycling networks. First, we performed a non-linear least square regression to assess the relationship between cycling network length and cycling mode share for 167 European cities. Second, we conducted a quantitative HIA for the seven cities of different scenarios (S) assessing how an expansion of the cycling network [i.e. 10% (S1); 50% (S2); 100% (S3), and all-streets (S4)] would lead to an increase in cycling mode share and estimated mortality impacts thereof. We quantified mortality impacts for changes in physical activity, air pollution and traffic incidents. Third, we conducted a cost-benefit analysis. The cycling network length was associated with a cycling mode share of up to 24.7% in European cities. The all-streets scenario (S4) produced greatest benefits through increases in cycling for London with 1,210 premature deaths (95% CI: 447-1,972) avoidable annually, followed by Rome (433; 95% CI: 170-695), Barcelona (248; 95% CI: 86-410), Vienna (146; 95% CI: 40-252), Zurich (58; 95% CI: 16-100) and Antwerp (7; 95% CI: 3-11). The largest cost-benefit ratios were found for the 10% increase in cycling networks (S1). If all 167 European cities achieved a cycling mode share of 24.7% over 10,000 premature deaths could be avoided annually. In European cities, expansions of cycling networks were associated with increases in cycling and estimated to provide health and economic benefits.

Abstract

We conducted a health impact assessment (HIA) of cycling network expansions in seven European cities. We modeled the association between cycling network length and cycling mode share and estimated health impacts of the expansion of cycling networks. First, we performed a non-linear least square regression to assess the relationship between cycling network length and cycling mode share for 167 European cities. Second, we conducted a quantitative HIA for the seven cities of different scenarios (S) assessing how an expansion of the cycling network [i.e. 10% (S1); 50% (S2); 100% (S3), and all-streets (S4)] would lead to an increase in cycling mode share and estimated mortality impacts thereof. We quantified mortality impacts for changes in physical activity, air pollution and traffic incidents. Third, we conducted a cost-benefit analysis. The cycling network length was associated with a cycling mode share of up to 24.7% in European cities. The all-streets scenario (S4) produced greatest benefits through increases in cycling for London with 1,210 premature deaths (95% CI: 447-1,972) avoidable annually, followed by Rome (433; 95% CI: 170-695), Barcelona (248; 95% CI: 86-410), Vienna (146; 95% CI: 40-252), Zurich (58; 95% CI: 16-100) and Antwerp (7; 95% CI: 3-11). The largest cost-benefit ratios were found for the 10% increase in cycling networks (S1). If all 167 European cities achieved a cycling mode share of 24.7% over 10,000 premature deaths could be avoided annually. In European cities, expansions of cycling networks were associated with increases in cycling and estimated to provide health and economic benefits.

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Additional indexing

Contributors:PASTA consortium
Item Type:Journal Article, refereed, original work
Communities & Collections:04 Faculty of Medicine > Epidemiology, Biostatistics and Prevention Institute (EBPI)
Dewey Decimal Classification:610 Medicine & health
Uncontrolled Keywords:Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health, Epidemiology
Language:English
Date:9 January 2018
Deposited On:22 Feb 2018 14:58
Last Modified:20 Sep 2018 04:29
Publisher:Elsevier
ISSN:0091-7435
OA Status:Closed
Publisher DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ypmed.2017.12.011
PubMed ID:29330030

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Embargo till: 2019-01-01