Abstract
Die Hochgebirgslandschaft reagiert sensibel auf die derzeitigen und in Zukunft möglicherweise beschleunigten Klimaveränderungen. Um die daraus resultierenden Landschaftsveränderungen frühzeitig abschätzen zu können, wurde das Geo-Informationssystem GISALP entwickelt. Sein Kernstück besteht aus einer Verknüpfung von vegetationskundlichen, geomorphologischen, glaziologischen und pedologischen Modellierungen, welche temperaturabhängige Szenarien bis ins Jahr 2100 liefern. Ein Vergleich der Resultate für verschiedene Zeitpunkte erlaubt das Aufdecken von Veränderungsräumen. Aufbauend auf den verschiedenen Modellresultaten kann die Entwicklung der Landschaftsattraktivität und von Problemräumen abgeschätzt werden. Problemräume entstehen dort, wo menschliche Nutzungen durch klimabedingte Veränderungen wie z.B. Naturgefahrenprozesse oder abnehmende Landschaftsattraktivität beeinträchtigt werden. Dank der 3-dimensionalen Darstellung der Modellresultate als Zeitreihen kann ansatzweise von einem "4-dimensionalen" Geo-Informationssystem gesprochen werden.
The high mountain environment is very climate-sensitive and will be affected by large changes in the future. The high mountains can be seen as a complex system, in which different features react with different intensity and speed to the rising temperatures and influence each other. A geo-information system named GISALP was built, in which several data about the landscape are integrated. 14 simply modells, so called modules, simulate the today's and future distribution of landscape features and processes. The principal item of the GISALP - project consists of an overlay from vegetational, geomorphological, glaciological and pedological processes. All modules can be run until year 2100 and access up the results of other modules if necessary. The results of the modules from different years can be visualised in 3D, so that GISALP can be called rudimentary a 4D - geo-information system. GISALP makes it for the first time possible to look at the landscape as a synthesis and to estimate its reaction to rising temperatures. With consideration of the several module results it will become possible to calculate the landscape attractivity. By comparing the results from different years of one module, changing areas can be identified. The results of the natural hazard modules can be overlayed by infrastructure to find potential future problem areas, but also a decreasing landscape attractivity will become a problem area. This results of the GISALP are valuable informations and help to make spatial relevant decisions with longterm affects such as new building projects. Own observations of the glaciers allowed to make a fotografic documentation of several changes which happened during the three-years project period and especially during the extraordinary hot summer 2003.
Rothenbühler, Christine