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Interconnectedness as a Source of Uncertainty in Systemic Risk


Roukny, Tarik; Battiston, Stefano; Stiglitz, Joseph E (2018). Interconnectedness as a Source of Uncertainty in Systemic Risk. Journal of Financial Stability, 35:93-106.

Abstract

Financial networks have shown to be important in understanding systemic events in credit markets. In this paper, we investigate how the structure of those networks can affect the capacity of regulators to assess the level of systemic risk. We introduce a model to compute the individual and systemic probability of default in a system of banks connected in a generic network of credit contracts and exposed to external shocks with a generic correlation structure. Even in the presence of complete knowledge, we identify conditions on the network for the emergence of multiple equilibria. Multiple equilibria give rise to uncertainty in the determination of the default probability. We show how this uncertainty can affect the estimation of systemic risk in terms of expected losses. We further quantify the effects of cyclicality, leverage, volatility and correlations. Our results are relevant to the current policy discussions on new regulatory framework to deal with systemic events of distress as well as on the desirable level of regulatory data disclosure.

Abstract

Financial networks have shown to be important in understanding systemic events in credit markets. In this paper, we investigate how the structure of those networks can affect the capacity of regulators to assess the level of systemic risk. We introduce a model to compute the individual and systemic probability of default in a system of banks connected in a generic network of credit contracts and exposed to external shocks with a generic correlation structure. Even in the presence of complete knowledge, we identify conditions on the network for the emergence of multiple equilibria. Multiple equilibria give rise to uncertainty in the determination of the default probability. We show how this uncertainty can affect the estimation of systemic risk in terms of expected losses. We further quantify the effects of cyclicality, leverage, volatility and correlations. Our results are relevant to the current policy discussions on new regulatory framework to deal with systemic events of distress as well as on the desirable level of regulatory data disclosure.

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Additional indexing

Item Type:Journal Article, refereed, original work
Communities & Collections:03 Faculty of Economics > Department of Banking and Finance
Dewey Decimal Classification:330 Economics
Language:English
Date:1 April 2018
Deposited On:22 Feb 2019 15:03
Last Modified:25 Sep 2019 00:17
Publisher:Elsevier
ISSN:1572-3089
OA Status:Closed
Free access at:Related URL. An embargo period may apply.
Publisher DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfs.2016.12.003
Related URLs:https://www.zora.uzh.ch/id/eprint/123654/
Other Identification Number:merlin-id:14739

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