Abstract
Estimates of the effect of fetal health shocks may suffer from survivorship bias. The fetal origins literature seemingly agrees that survivorship bias is innocuous in the sense that it induces a bias toward zero. Arguably, however, selective mortality can imply a bias away from zero. In the case of the 1918 flu pandemic, a suppressed immune system may have been protective against the most severe consequences of infection. We use historical birth records from the maternity hospital of Bern, Switzerland, to evaluate this possibility. Our results suggest that a careful consideration of survivorship bias is imperative for the evaluation of the 1918 flu pandemic and other fetal health shocks.
| Item Type: | Working Paper |
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| Communities & Collections: | 03 Faculty of Economics > Department of Economics
04 Faculty of Medicine > Institute of Evolutionary Medicine
Working Paper Series > Department of Economics |
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| Dewey Decimal Classification: | 330 Economics |
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| JEL Classification: | I10, I15, I18, N34, J24 |
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| Uncontrolled Keywords: | Fetal origins hypothesis, 1918 flu pandemic, culling, survivorship bias, Pandemie, Grippe, Pränatale Entwicklung, Langfristige Analyse, Sterblichkeit, Sozialstatus, Schweiz |
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| Scope: | Discipline-based scholarship (basic research) |
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| Language: | English |
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| Date: | March 2021 |
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| Deposited On: | 01 Feb 2019 09:34 |
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| Last Modified: | 29 Oct 2024 11:49 |
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| Series Name: | Working paper series / Department of Economics |
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| Number of Pages: | 8 |
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| ISSN: | 1664-705X |
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| Additional Information: | Revised version ; Former title: Survival of the weakest? Culling evidence from the 1918 flu pandemic |
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| OA Status: | Green |
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| Related URLs: | https://www.econ.uzh.ch/en/research/workingpapers.html |
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| Other Identification Number: | merlin-id:17539 |
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Floris, Joël